Metsmerized

Maybe 'Roids Don't Work

2005-04-03T17:24:00.000-04:00

So one of the lightest hitting players in baseball tested positive for steroids. Obviously, they don't work. In 1351 career at-bats, he has four home runs!!! Seriously, maybe steroids don't help you hit homers at all and maybe Bonds can use this as an argument in his defense.

Pedro on the hill tomorrow. Let's go Mets go.

Spring Loose Ends

2005-03-29T23:13:00.000-05:00

So we are almost their, the season is almost upon us. Is it just me, or does spring training seem a little too long? Maybe it is the anticipation of the season, but it is endless. Every minor story becomes a major story and it has gotten to the point where I have just stopped reading. Well maybe not stopped, but my enthusiasm has waned.

One story that has gotten some play is Willie's insistence on batting David Wright eighth. I've gotten into this before, and I don't want to repeat myself, but how many teams bat their second best hitter eighth? I want to give Willie every benefit of the doubt, but this is senseless. Maybe he is doing this to get the press' collective panties in a bunch, but if Wright is hitting before the pitcher next Monday, it is cause for concern and takes into question Willie's ability to evaluate talent. If he said he didn't want to put pressure on him because he is young, I wouldn't agree with it, but I would at least understand his rationale. However, since he has penciled Reyes in as the leadoff hitter even though he is younger and has had less success in the majors, that can't be the reason. I'd like for a Mets reporter to ask Willie this question, I would love to hear the answer.

In other news, Andres Galarraga retired as I'm sure you know by now. As a result, the consensus seems to be that Kerry Robinson has a spot on the team. I don't get it. The other four spots for the bench are earmarked for Cairo, Woodward, Valent and Castro. Was it really down to the Big Cat and Robinson? A slugging righty and a punchless fifth outfielder? Without Mike Cameron, Robinson has a purpose as the Mets would need someone else who could play center. Right now, their bench lacks any righthanded pop. Castro has some, but as the backup catcher teams are hesitant to throw them up in any situation. I don't like the fact that Luis Garcia, who hit his third homer of the spring today, didn't seem to get a legitimate shot at the job.

I am not saying Garcia should've gotten the job over Robinson, but you would think the Mets had a role they wanted to fill with the last bench spot. If they wanted another outfielder, take Robinson or Calloway. Another slugger, Galarraga or Garcia. Maybe I am reading too much into the press and it really wasn't between Galarrage or Robinson. Here is hoping that Garcia mashes in Norfolk, proving his stats in 2004 were not a product of Las Vegas and the PCL, and that Robinson turns out to be the useless player he has always been.

I'm getting tired of speaking in hypotheticals, bring on the games.

Ugh To Urbina

2005-03-23T13:54:00.000-05:00

Mr. Gilkey raises a good point about the Mets talent evaluation. Are they delusional about how good their talent is, or are they just bad talent evaluators? I think it is a little of both and they have far too often fallen prey to the lure of the "proven commodity."

There is no better example of this then their supposed interest in Ugueth Urbina. Maybe this is not true, but if it is, it is a major red flag about how they run their team. Urbina comes with the "proven closer" label after some dominance in the late 90s and a great run for Florida in 2003, when he took the closers role from our own Braden Looper.

Have you looked at his stats? In 2004, he had a 4.50 ERA in 54 IP in the pitchers heaven that is Comerica Park. For his career, his ERA is 3.42 in 618 innings with 717 strikeouts and 268 walks. His K/9 is strong, but his K/BB is mediocre and with the exception of a couple of dominant stretches in 2002 and 1998, seven years ago(!), he has been extremely average. A 3.42 career ERA for a supposedly upper echelon reliever is an abomination.

Note to Mets: He does not provide an upgrade over anything they have in house and a trade for him would be a waste of resources. What does he have over Strickland or Bell other than that we have all heard of him? The thought of this trade makes me nauseous as the Tigers are supposedly asking for one or two prospects. It is same type of thing as the Ishii and Benson deals. The Mets continually fail to understand the concept of replacement-level talent.

Hopefully this is all smoke, but I fear there is fire there as well.

Fun with Leverage

2005-03-22T10:40:00.000-05:00

My overall feelings about the deal were very similar to Wally’s at first there was some anger and frustration, and then that slowly subsided, because I realized this trade isn’t actually killing the Mets.
The trade does sound alarms about the overall long-term plan of the team. Those alarms ringing basically signifying “we have no long term plan, we don’t know what the f we are doing.”
My view of the goal of this season was to build respectability with a possible outside shot at the playoffs, but for me that would’ve been gravy. I will gladly take an 86 win season from this Mets team, especially if it meant that Wright, Reyes, Matsui were all healthy and growing as major leaguers, and Beltran continued to establish himself as a superstar. Lay the groundwork, wait for Petit, Milledge, Humber to join the party and in a year or two the Mets will be ready for a long run of good times.
This move clearly signifies a win now attitude from management. While this move isn’t particularly detrimental to the team (like say trading away the best young lefty prospect in baseball, but who would do that?). I believe Phillips to be more like the player of 2003 than 2004, but that’s my opinion and the Mets clearly felt otherwise. As a backup catcher Ramon Castro is not a significant downgrade from Phillips because there will only be so many at bats for a backup catcher.
However, where I believe this really hurts the Mets is the 2006 season and beyond. With Piazza’s contract expiring and the Mets organization dry at MLB ready catching prospects (thanks Kris Benson!) the Mets are going to be stuck with Ramon Castro as their starting catcher as they are supposed to start their run of dominance.
Phillips could have at least bought them a season and played a league average catcher while they either waited for a prospect to develop or better ones to hit the market (I think Ramon Hernandez is the big name on FA catcher list for next year).
Regardless, holding onto Phillips whether or not they planned on using him, gives the Mets leverage in solving their long term catching situation. This “leverage” term is clearly something that Omar is still struggling to grasp. Additionally, Phillips makes peanuts, and it is invaluable to have a few good starters who make nothing.
While the immediate downsides of this trade are minimal, and hey, I guess it’s possible that Ishii reverts back to form (I’m not holding my breath) it signals that the new management still doesn’t get it. They are still stuck in this indecisive limbo position of waiting or deciding to go for it, and as a result will ensure themselves a long run of expensive mediocrity.
One last note, Similar to last year’s deals, this deal makes me question the Met’s organizations ability to realistically, and objectively judge the talent on this team. As a fan it is easy to overrate or be overly optimistic about players that you have a certain affinity for. As a fan it’s expected, except for those of a few teams, that you approach every season with optimism and excitement. As a GM or Owner it is simply unacceptable to approach players or expected team performance with anything other than objective analysis. So sadly, and I don’t know which is more sad, either they don’t realize this or their objective analysis is just really poor.

What Is Better Than One Guy Named Kaz? (Answer At Bottom)

2005-03-21T22:35:00.000-05:00

It seems as though most of blogging community is split on whether the Jason Phillips for Kaz Ishii trade is a good one so I figured I would weigh in on the subject.

My first instinct was that this was a terrible trade. After further deliberation I am not so sure it is terrible, but I am not a fan. I can understand why the Mets were not too pumped about putting Matt Ginter in the starting rotation because he is not a known quantity, but Kaz Ishii is not a reasonable upgrade.

I look at the trade and I see two teams with a need. The Mets felt they needed another starter and the Dodgers felt the needed a catcher. Phillips provides the Dodgers with a legitimate upgrade over David Ross and Paul Bako, while Ishii does not provide the same type of upgrade for the Mets. I am not opposed to trading Phillips because 2004 notwithstanding, he is one of the stronger back-up catchers and better than a number of starters in the league; however, Kaz Ishii is an erratic starter with questionable command whose numbers have not been great in one of the best pitchers parks in the league.

Maybe Rick Peterson can “fix him in 10 minutes” like he has with Victor Zambrano. If both of these guys post sub-4.00 ERAs, build him his plaque in Cooperstown now. The Dodgers were also looking to get rid of Ishii as reports indicated that manager Jim Tracy was tired of his endless innings and he was included in the first proposed Randy Johnson deal. In fact, it was supposedly the Dodgers who proposed the Phillips trade.

Trachsel’s BP Projections

In the comments section on my last post, Bernard wanted to know if Trachsel had outperformed his PECOTA projections the last few years, which I’m guessing is Bernard’s way of asking if Trachsel may have some inherent quality that PECOTA cannot measure.

In 2003, his 50% projection was a 4.24 ERA with a 40% chance improvement in 155 innings and he put up 3.78 ERA in 205 innings, greatly exceeding his projection, particularly in terms of innings pitched. In 2004 his 50% projection was a 4.50 ERA in 147 innings and he had a 4.00 ERA in 2003 innings. As it says in BP, the PECOTA projections tend to be conservative but Trachsel has outperformed his innings projection by a ton in both years and his ERA as well, but to a lesser extent. Whether this indicates a special ability on his part, I don’t know.

Petit Is The Man

As if I didn’t have reason enough to love Yusmeiro Petit, I just got MVP Baseball for Playstation 2 which, on Franchise, Mode allows you to play with a team and you can play with their minor league all the way down to High Class A. I am early in the 2005 season with the Mets and I decided to play a game with Norfolk where they had placed Petit and Lastings Milledge. In my one game against Columbus, I pitched a perfect game with Petit. It was one of the greatest video game performances of my life, up there with 600 yard game I had with Bo Jackson in Super Tecmo Bowl. Although he only had six strikeouts, I think they had one hard hit ball all night. I may have to bring him up sooner than the Mets intended. If you have the game, Petit is known as T. Tucker and Milledge is known as B. Tyner. Fortunately, it isn’t J. Tyner.

Answer: If your response to title question was “Two guys named Kaz!” You were right. The Mets have now set the record for most guys named Kaz. This note is soon to be appearing in a Jayson Stark column, but you heard it here first.

So Long Super Joe

2005-03-17T22:35:00.000-05:00

Well, Omar must’ve finally read Metsmerized because Joe McEwing was cut. I have probably spent more time on this blog ripping McEwing than anything else. It isn’t personal, because he would be on the short list of current Mets I’d like to have a beer with. I guess he is no longer a current Met, but you get my point. In fact, I’ll take this chance to make a list of the Top 5 Mets of all-time I’d like to have a beer with. Feel free to enter your own in the comments section.

5. Eric Valent-Have to give some love to my current favorite Met.
4. Pedro Martinez-He is new, but is there any doubt he would be hysterical?
3. Kevin Mitchell-Just so I could pick a fight and watch him run the show. I wouldn’t bring a cat though.
2.Karim Garcia-It would be the same night Pedro and I were drinking. The two of them together would ensure some good Pedro one-liners.
1. Wally Backman-I’ve heard some stories of him as a minor league manager (and as a player), apparently he would out drink his players, once holding up the team bus for three hours while everyone sat on the bus waiting. That, coupled with him being my favorite Met ever made him an easy choice for the top spot.

But I digress. McEwing is a sucky major leaguer, and Chris Woodward does everything he does, but does it better. Tony LaRussa is obsessed with McEwing so he will probably end up there. As we all know, LaRussa is clueless when it comes to filling out his bench. If you want evidence, remember that he used Marlon Anderson as his DH in the World Series last October.

At one point, McEwing was useful for a few weeks, like when he came up in 1999 with the Cardinals and played every position, hit .300 for a while and was on every Smallworld baseball team in the country. Those who played Smallworld, you know what I’m talking about. So long Joe, I won’t miss you. At least on the field.

As for the Steve Trachsel debate, we may have to agree to disagree, but I will offer one more piece of evidence. While I don’t think it is gospel, I do find the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA forecasting system fascinating. PECOTA agrees with my assessment that Trachsel is a pitcher due for a fall. It has him pegged for 4.74 ERA in 152 IP and a VORP of 9.7. It has Ginter pegged for a 4.57 ERA in 90 IP with a VORP of 7.2. Ginter will obviously have more opportunity than this now so that would certainly change the looks of his projection. Can he throw 200 league average innings? I doubt it. Can he throw 150 league average innings? I think so.

If you subtract his one relief appearance, and his two awful appearances against the Yankees (maybe this isn’t fair, but the Mets do not regularly face a lineup as good as theirs) he threw 60.2 innings in 12 starts. That is an average of slightly more than 5 innings per start, not great; however, his ERA in those starts was 3.56. While I do not think he is capable of upping his innings per start and maintaining that ERA, it is realistic to think he can add an inning per start and keep his ERA in the low 4.00s, which is what we would be getting from Trachsel.

For all the talk about the Mets pitching, it has been their offense that has really been their shortcoming the last few years. In the last three years, they have finished 26th, 28th and 24th in runs scored in the majors. Upgrading their offense is really what the Mets needed and they should be a lot better there. Maintaining their runs allowed and adding 50 runs should make the Mets a winning team.

I digress again. I’d rather have Trachsel, but the difference between him and Ginter is not much.

Keeping Trach

2005-03-17T16:52:00.000-05:00

I am less optimistic than Wally about what this Trachsel injury does to the Mets season. This is strange, because usually I am blindly optimistic while Wally tends to be the realist.

The first point I want to address is Trachsel's anti-pedro K/9 ration. While yes, last year it was 5.20 which is not very good, It was actually an improvement from the 4.86 he posted in 2003, and only a slight decline from his 5.44 in 2002. Nothing is pointing to an immediate or really any decline in Trachsel's numbers. He has been getting by on smoke and mirrors, but he has been getting by on smoke and mirrors for a long enough period that maybe he is just really good at using his smoke and mirrors. Christ, I know i would grow impatient waiting for him to throw the damn ball. Trachsel has established himself for a long enough period that one should follow his considerable service time numbers and say "well maybe this guy doesn't need k's" rather then assuming he's been getting by on luck the last three years.

That being said, I think in terms of ERA or RA(for you wally) Ginter will be a suitable replacement for Trachsel. The real area where this kills the Mets is that Trachsel was a lock for 200 innings, whereas Ginter barely could go 5 per start last year. He is going to be a phenomenal drain on the bullpen. Additionaly, It would have been really nice to spot start Ginter every few weeks to give Pedro an extra day off.
Here is hoping Koo will have some effect on Jae Seo. Maybe Seo will listen to him or maybe even the pitching coach for a change!

On a sad note, and I'm sure this is an especially trying day for Wally and David Wright, It appears as though the Mets have finally given Super Joe his walking papers. Wow. To lose two consistent performers like Joe and Trachs in a week is rough. Welcome 2005, the year of the Amazin' Unpredictables.

Trach This!

2005-03-17T15:16:00.000-05:00

Maybe I am being too optimistic, but the loss of Trachsel may not be as bad as we first thought. Yes, as I outlined he has been excellent over the last three years, but when you look at his age, his "stuff" and his peripherals, he looks like a good candidate to start getting hit pretty hard one of these years. In fact, it is impressive his ERA has been as good as it has been considering his peripherals over the last few years.

Last year, he struck out 117 and walked 83 in 203 IP, not exactly Pedro-esque. While he has never been a great strikeout pitcher (his career K/9 is 6.06), the 5.20 figure from 2004 is cause for alarm. On top of that, Trachsel allowed 14 unearned runs, which is a lot and makes his ERA look a lot better than it is. Anyone who has read this blog knows how I feel about errors and the quick version of that is there is no difference between an error and not getting to a ball you could've. If it were up to we, RA would be the accepted stat and not ERA. A lot of unearned runs will often mask a pitchers shortcomings, and I think this was the case for Trachsel. The point here is that Matt Ginter is a decent bet to be about as good as Trachsel in 2005 when you figure that as a 27-year-old, he is more likely to have his best seasons than the 34-year-old Trachsel.

This could be wishful thinking, but the bigger concern as I see it now is Victor Zambrano. While I try not to read too much into spring performance, he has thus far been extremely hittable. While my proposed Barry Zito for Mike Cameron swap from yesterday might not be ideal, I still see Cammy as the Mets most valuable trade commodity. Miguel Cairo alone won't get it done and Cameron could potentially net a good starter. I am not saying the Mets should be in a rush to do this, but if push comes to shove, he is the one expendable player they have that other teams might want. Using him for Ugueth Urbina as some reports have suggested makes me shudder. Urbina is overrated based on name recognition, but that is a column for

Just a Teenage Dirtbag?

2005-03-16T15:55:00.000-05:00

With all the babies on the Oakland staff I just can't see them trading Zito, who is at least a dependable innings eater(214, 229, 231, 213, jeez!) unless they are well out of the race. If they are out of the race, it wouldn't make a lot of sense for them to trade for someone with Cameron's age or contract.
Also, I think one of the more fascinating story lines going into this year for the Mets involves Cameron. Personally, I am curious to see what an outfield made up of two elite defensive centerfielders can do together. Gone are the days of Roger Cedeno circling aimlessly at pop-ups, Welcome the days of Cliff floyd sitting in a beach chair while Beltran and Cameron have daily contests of who can get to more balls. Yet I digress,
The trade Wally proposes essentially involves the Mets giving up Cameron and Ginter for V. Diaz and Zito. There are a number of things that need to be looked at when discussing this trade. The first being, How good is Zito? Opinions vary, clearly he is not the Cy Young pitcher he once was, but on the flip side he is probably better than the 4.48 era he put up last year. His peripherals, except for HRA, were actually better last year and it seems as though he suffered from some bad luck of balls dropping in. In my estimation, Zito is a dependable lefty who is slightly better than league average.
Ginter is clearly not as a good as Zito, but did post a respectable 4.54 era in 69 innings for the mets last year(sources say Ginter added a change over the winter and it is proving to be somewhat effective this spring). Ginter doesn't walk a lot of people and relies on his fielders to make plays behind him. Incidentaly, Zito's K rate isn't that good either and he also relies on his fielders to make plays.
Bringing me to my point. Since Diaz has no true position, It's hard to imagine that his left field could hold a candle to the (likely) awesome left field that Cammy will provide. Since neither are huge K guys, It might very well be that Ginter with a Cameron assisted outfield is a more effective pitcher than Zito with a Diaz assisted one.
This is a similar argument that some have made about the yankees off-season pitching acquisitions. That instead of spending tons of money on new "front line" starters they could've addded Beltran and some scrubs and the Yankee runs allowed would have been the same, plus they would be adding Beltran's bat.
Since we are talking about potential deals...and the yankees.... I like what I see from Woodward this spring, and considering his age and experience I think he will be a great backup middle infielder. This signing makes Cairo somewhat expendable. I'm guessing in a few weeks, The Yankees will grow tired of seeing Womack a) getting thrown out stealing second b) not getting on base in the first place c)muffing balls at second, and will yearn for the days of Cairo. In return for returning their savior they throw us a cheap lefty that's never cracking their rotation anyway, Alex Graman. Everyone is happy... except for Cairo's ex-agent that is.

Trachsel Is A Dirtbag, Seriously

2005-03-16T15:44:00.000-05:00

The whole Trachsel thing is extremely unfortunate, particularly now that he looks like he is out for the season. Bernard is right, since 2002 he has been pretty fantastic with an ERA of 3.73. For comparisons sake, Mike Mussina's is 3.96 during that time. I know the AL has the DH, which hurts your ERA, but the two have been quite similar and at $5 million a year, Trachsel has been a bargain. It is somewhat amazing that he is able to have done this due to unimpressive strikeout (5.16 K/9) and walk (3.36 BB/9) rates. We can wax poetically about the glory years of our favorite Dirtbag (he went to Long Beach St., "The Dirtbags"), or we can figure out an alternative.

After this season, Trachsel's contract is up. If he is out for the season, his days at Shea may be over. Matt Ginter is a marginal alternative, so if the Mets think they are contenders, a trade is in order. As far as minor league depth, the Mets have little to offer and it is not worth trading one of their big four (Petit, Milledge, Humber and Hernandez) for a mediocre starter. As I see it, they have two options. One is squeezing as much as they can out of Ginter and hope that Petit dominates Double-A and bringing him up. The logic here is that Petit will probably see the majors at some point this season (most likely September), so a couple of months earlier won't be too bad. Heck, it worked for David Wright. I just don't like the idea of relying on Petit at this point and the Mets should bring him along slowly.

There has been a lot of talk about the Mets trading Mike Cameron because he was unhappy but now he says he wants to stay. As I see it, he may know be the Mets most valuable commodity in a trade. Here is what I propose. Let Ginter start the season in the rotation and see how he does with Cameron in right and Diaz in Norfolk playing every day. If Ginter is fine, roll with it. If not, put Cammy on the block and plan to slot Diaz into right upon trading Cammy. Cameron is reasonably priced and could net a solid starter. There has been talk about the Mets reuniting Barry Zito with Rick Peterson and the A's were interested in Killer Cam, with Zito a free agent after 2005 and the A's guaranteed not to re-sign him, doesn't this make sense? The Mets could then ride Zito for a season, see how he does and then re-sign him or net a first round pick when he leaves as an FA. I hate to get into the habit of hypothetical trades, but this makes too much sense. No?

Let Me Introduce Myself

2005-03-16T13:09:00.000-05:00

With slightly less fan-fare, yet shockingly more literaracy, than Scoop Jackson on Page 2, Bernard Gilkey (a rare 3rd person reference) announces the second stage of his career for the Mets.
The past couple years for me have just kind of rolled by in drunken haze. Getting that call from Wally was like finding out that 1996 did in fact happen, and that they had not been confusing me with Ray Lankford as many had thought.
Some quick things about me:
1) I don’t like Joe Morgan. In fact, I had a previously failed blogging career last October at Joemorganfactcheck.blogspot.com. If anyone is interested in partnering or purchasing send me a note.
2) 1996 did happen
3) I believe that as bad as the Mets have been/are, it is still infinitely better than being a K.C., Pitt, Detroit, or Yankee fan.
4) I’m pretty uninteresting… so that’s about it about me.

Onto some baseball…
This Trachsel thing is just devastating for the Mets. The PR machine that runs the Mets have been billing Trachsel, even before the injury, as the 4th or 5th starter on this Mets team. While this might be the case if you were to rank the Mets pitchers in terms of potential upside (I would go Pedro, Zambrano, Benson, Glavine, Trachsel), this is not the case in reality and/ or actual performance.
Trachsel over the last 3-4 years has arguably been the best pitcher in New York, and this includes that other AL team. He is not flashy and he is not winning any awards but Trachsel has been consistently effective for a long time. Consistent, unfortunately is not the word to describe the rest of the Mets staff, Pedro excluded.
Glavine is aging, his strikeout rate is declining and the chance of him putting in a full season of #2 quality is nil. Benson because of his #1 overall status and his hot wife makes people forget that he has never been good enough to be at the top of a rotation. Zambrano has shown the ability to be dominant and at times is unhittable; unfortunately half the time that he is “unhittable” it is because he is hitting the backstop or the dugout. Maybe Peterson should spend $100 at lens crafters for Zambrano instead of the thousands at his high performance institutes?
Excluding Pedro from this discussion, Trachsel is by far the most consistent and effective performer on this Mets staff. In reality the Mets are not losing their #5 starter, but one of the very few guarantees on this team the last couple years.
The Trachsel loss is especially painful for the Mets, because even though they don’t need a 5th starter for a couple of weeks because of the early off days, every extra day off for Pedro is huge.
As Wally mentioned, throwing Humber on a Major League roster before he has thrown a professional pitch in his career is a mistake even beyond the idiocy of Mets management. I could see Petit getting a call after the break, if he is again dominant in the minors, but that help is months away at best.
As for mixing up the rotation in different ways… I would think that it would still be beneficial to have your best pitchers pitch as many times as possible. Also, you would have to redefine who is a #1, the guy who is most effective? The guy who eats the most innings? The guys who does the best combination of both? Anyone feel like doing some math?

Off The Trach

2005-03-15T22:28:00.000-05:00

Metsmerized was about to enter a new era, but my boy Bernard Gilkey has been under the weather and unable to post just yet, so I figured I’d pick up the slack. Trust me though, when he comes back he’ll be performing like it was 1996.

So Trachsel might be out for a while. This is terrible news. Sure he isn’t a star, but he is anz “innings eater” in the truest sense of the word. Over the last three years, he has been extremely reliable and as far as third or fourth starters go, you could do a whole lot worse. All of the options to replace him range from awful to terrible. Some people are throwing out Philip Humber and Yusmeiro Petit as suggestions, I cannot endorse this. As talented as they might seem, there is a big difference between the Phillies lineup and TCU, let alone the Asheville Tourists. Being able to dominate at college and Class A ball is one thing, the majors is a different animal and it would unfair to these guys to put them in that position.

Of those available, I see Matt Ginter as the best available option. Neither his ERA or peripherals were great last year, but Francisco Campos does not instill confidence in me. He is unknown, so that is intriguing, but if he were really good, people would know who he was.

While they won’t do this, I was thinking that it would be interesting if the Mets applied a less conventional pitching rotation during this period, or for the whole season for that matter. In a recent chat, Rob Neyer suggested instead of throwing your starters in order from best to worst, it might be better to do 1-5-2-4-3, because theoretically, it would maximize your bullpen rest. For example, you need your bullpen the least when your #1 guy pitches, so they will be rested for #5, then, you won’t need them as much for #2 etc. For all the stink people make about batting order, the pitching order might be more important and I would love to see a study on it done by someone smarter and more importantly, more patient that me.

Things Done Changed

2005-03-13T21:21:00.000-05:00

As I’m sure some of you may have noticed, I have been writing with a lot less frequency of late. Part of it is a new job that has kept me busy, but for the most part I feel as though I have been lacking inspiration. In hopes of beefing up to content and creating more of a debate atmosphere, I have invited loyal reader Bernard Gilkey to join me as a writer on the site. Our hope is to create a PTI-type feel on Metsmerized where we can have a good back and forth discussing Mets’ issues. I hope you welcome him with Journey-esque open arms.

On that note, I will bring up a note that Bernard pointed out to me this morning. In the notes towards the bottom of this article, Willie Randolph says that he is not sure where David Wright will bat this year, but he sees him possibly fitting into the eighth slot. While he hasn’t done it yet, I hope Willie reconsiders and realizes this is an awful idea. There are numerous theories about the importance of lineup construction and some say it doesn’t matter all that much. I tend to think its importance is overstated; however, I do believe that it is in your best interest to get your best OBP guys towards the top, insuring that you will maximize the number of time through the lineup. The standard construction most teams use is pretty effective, and within the standard construction David Wright should be hitting third or fourth considering he is the second best hitter on the behind Carlos Beltran. Piazza might still be better, but I don’t think so.

The only justification I can think of is that Willie doesn’t want to put a lot of pressure on the kid by hitting him in the middle of the lineup. If that theory were true, it would lead me to believe that Willie was unaware of what Wright did in the second half of last season. The guy proved he can do it in the majors and he should be slotted into the lineup accordingly. Furthermore, if anyone needs pressure off of them, it is Jose Reyes who has not proven he can consistently perform at this level, yet he is unquestionably considered the leadoff man.

Others thoughts…As for today’s game, Chris Woodward went 3 for 3, strengthening his case for the utility job as he is now hitting .350 for the spring. I thought he was the best man for the job from the start, so I am glad to see he is making it clear he is the man…My boy Luis Garcia hit his second bomb of the spring and hopefully he is making an impression…Ambiorix Concepcion continues to get a shocking amount of playing time with the big league club. While I can’t imagine he would make the team, it leads me to believe the Mets have high hopes of him advancing quickly this season. I’m very curious as to where he will start out and how they treat him. Hopefully he picks up some plate discipline along the way, because he has tools and after seeing him in Brooklyn last year, he is fun to watch.

Random Mets Thoughts And Such

2005-03-09T21:53:00.000-05:00

For those of us on the Heath Bell bandwagon it has been an excellent week. Bell has thus far allowed no runs in five innings while fanning four and allowing only two baserunners. It is obviously early on, but he is making a strong case for the bullpen. That is obviously more than can be said for Aaron Heilman, who is doing absolutely nothing to help his case, unless his case is to be mentioned in the same breath as Bill Pulsipher and David West. I haven’t seen him pitch, but there is nothing positive you can take from six earned runs in three innings and three home runs allowed.

As for my personal fave for the spring, Luis Garcia has homered in five at-bats with nothing else to show for his chances at the plate. Galarraga also has homered and will most likely make the team for some reason, and I’m guessing that veteran leadership will have something to do with it. After six weeks when Garcia is mashing at Norfolk and Galarraga is doing nothing, the Mets will realize that a 27-year-old who destroyed the PCL is better than a 58-year-old who has been in and out of baseball over the last four years.

On a similar note, the Mets seem to be determining their fifth outfielder based on their performance this spring. Kerry Robinson appears to be the front-runner based on his .400 batting average. Do you think Willie and Omar sit in an office and say, “Kerry Robinson really is a .400 hitter!” Here is my question, if they really think he is good, why wouldn’t he be starting? He would be their best player. I have a decent idea of what he will do, and it is roughly close to his career line of .267/.305/.338. Then again, his competition is Ron Calloway whose career line is .224/.268/.344. How did the Mets end up in this postion where these were there two options for a roster spot? I cannot believe I am saying this, but McEwing would be a better choice than these two because he can put up the same crappy numbers and play a bunch more positions. There had to be a better option out there somewhere.

In the other good news department, Kaz Matsui seems to be adjusting well to second base; however, I cannot imagine he is too happy about it. Last season, the Mets moved their prize prospect off of his position to accommodate Kaz, and now they are making him switch. One would have to think that this is not what he imagined when he signed in the US.

WARNING: HYPOTHETICAL TRADE ABOUT TO BE PROPOSED

So, here is what I have in mind and yes, I am being a hypocrite because I hate when fans come up with hypothetical trades, at least on sports radio. Kaz to the Mariners for Bret Boone. The Mariners are in the midst of an overhaul and would love to rid themselves of a steroid creation (at least according to Jose) who makes a lot of money. More importantly, the Mariners would have Kaz and ICHIRO!, which would be fantastic for marketing purposes. They could put Kaz at short and move Pokey Reese over to second. Kaz would help provide some good PR while the Mariners rebuild a bit over the next couple of years. Boone would provide the Mets with a natural second baseman who, despite being on the downside of his career, would put up numbers better than Kaz. I am not saying I would do this, but it makes sense in a lot of ways. If you think I am being outrageous, I apologize because I might be.

Other thoughts…The Mets signed Brian Daubach to a minor league deal, I have no idea what this does.

Who Are You Luis Garcia?

2005-03-01T21:42:00.000-05:00

So, although it has not yet been posted on their website, Baseball America’s top 100 prospects are all over the internet. It has been discussed ad nauseam elsewhere and I have gone into it a lot as well so I won’t now. Milledge at #11 is not surprising considering his tools and Petit at #46 is because of his lack of them. What was interesting was to see Philip Humber at #50 despite never pitching a professional game; however, his repertoire was too good to pass up. What was also noteworthy was that Jeff Niemann, drafted after Humber (his Rice teammate), ranked #20. From all reports, Niemann just has nastier stuff and was taken behind Humber because he was deemed to be tougher to sign. In his favor, Humber has a splitter (which Niemann doesn’t have) and has less of an injury history.

As for the big club, they kick off their exhibition season tomorrow against the Nationals and I’m sure very Mets fan is eagerly awaiting seeing Beltran in a Mets uniform. Unfortunately, Glavine will be starting so we will have to wait a little longer to see Pedro. The season is upon us, hallelujah.

As for what to look for this spring, the first thing I am looking for is to see Jose Reyes not pull up lame like last season. In the process, I would like to see him work the count and show some patience. I wouldn’t mine seeing him get some seasoning at Norfolk, but that is not going to happen so we can only hope he develops his batting eye in the bigs, not an easy feat. Willie R. was quoted in the paper recently as saying how he wants to see more patience and walks from Reyes and Matsui which is encouraging because it means Randolph will be on top of them for it. As I’ve noted before, Willie was a great OBP guy in his career and hopefully it will be a skill he continue to stress, particularly with the guys who need it most.

Another guy who I am interested to see is Luis Garcia. An NRI, Garcia is a righthanded hitting minor league masher. He was .314/.354/.584 with 32 HR at Las Vegas last season, Triple-A in the Dodgers system. He is 26, so he is not a prospect but if the Mets are talking about Andres Galarraga on the 25-man roster, this guy strikes me as a potentially better option for a Minky platoon. I’m guessing Galarraga will get a shot and Garcia will go to Norfolk, if the Big Cat falters, we will see what Garcia can do. I’m curious to see what Garcia is all about.

Obviously, it will also be exciting to see what Yusmeiro Petit can do in his few appearances and how the bullpen sorts out. Here’s hoping Heath Bell pitches well in spring.

Prospecting

2005-02-26T20:02:00.000-05:00

The inspiration for posts have not been frequent of late and has lead to some silence on Metsmerized. Luckily, Baseball Prospectus released its list of their top 50 prospects and John Sickels did a list of the top 20 Mets prospects.

For the BP list, they did not give commentary on the list so it was hard to gauge their reasoning. Obviously, we know they value skills and numbers over tools, but the list left me with a lot of questions. For example, they rated Matt Cain behind Jered Weaver even though Cain has dominated at High A, pitched well at Double-A and is younger! This makes no sense to me. If you were going by tools, you could make the argument if you thought Weaver had better stuff, but Cain has already put up numbers in professional baseball. From reading the BP prospect roundtables, they seemed to be all over the place in determining the list and not as consistent as past years. I would like to know if they do a vote, or if it is a consensus or if one person takes the commentary and makes the list.

As a Mets fan, the on thing that jumps out at you is Kazmir is ranked one spot ahead of Yusmeiro Petit. As I commented in an earlier post, it would be interesting to see how BP rated Petit and Milledge as opposed to Baseball America where Milledge was #1 and Petit #2. As I hypothesized, they had Petit ahead of Milledge but I was pleased to see Milledge at #19. Although Milledge has a rep as toolsy guy, he did have an enormous year in 2004, too big for BP to ignore. Although Delmon Young is #2, the difference between him and Milledge is not that large. In fact, you could argue that Milledge has a higher ceiling because he has speed and is a better fielder. Right now, Milledge is comparable to a guy like Rocco Baldelli due to his lack of plate discipline. Obviously, Baldelli would be nice, but if he can work on the walk rate, he could become closer to Carlos Beltran. His future will be exciting to follow.

Similarly, it is nice to see Petit get some love from BP but it isn’t surprising. This is a huge year for him and if he succeeds at Double-A, he will be on the fast track to Flushing while silencing critics who say he lacks “stuff.”

Only one Yankee, Eric Duncan, made the list and I was surprised to see him at #13 right ahead of Kaz and Petit. His line of .254/.366.462 in the Florida State League is not that impressive, but the walk rate is impressive and that must’ve been what clinched it for him; however, his line of .260/.351/.479 in the first part of the year at Low A is nothing special either, Milledge’s were far more impressive but Duncan walks a lot more.

As for Sickels, he has Petit and Humber rated ahead of Milledge, which is surprising and somewhat curious. Sickels does not speak too highly of either though, giving Petit a B+ and saying he thinks he is the #21 pitching prospect. His criticism of Petit and Milledge are what you would expect and what I have outlined before, but apparently he sees their shortcoming as larger obstacles than most.

On the plus side, he speaks glowingly of Gaby Fernandez and from what I’ve read, I have become very excited about this guy. He is a ways off but another guy worth following. I enjoy tracking the Mets farm system and was so dismayed when they made the “Black Friday” trades and a big reason was because I had enjoyed following those guys. On a side note, I saw the Justin huber is now being moved to first base primarily thereby diminishing his value and making that trade a little easier to swallow.

Looking at the Sickels’ list, it is apparent the Mets system lacks depth but is top heavy, particularly in the pitching department. The assessments in BP and by Sickels are fair. The BA top 100 prospect list will be released Monday and will provide an interesting point of comparison.

In The Papers

2005-02-20T18:06:00.000-05:00

While things are a little slow as spring training is yet to get into full swing, the Sunday papers treated us to some excellent Mets content.

The New York Times gave us the first feature I have seen yet on Yusmeiro Petit. He is really an intriguing prospect who is a source of disagreement between scouts and performance analysts. It has been well documented, and is discussed in this article, that Petit does not throw very hard. For the most part, his fastball operates in the high-80s, usually not enough for a righty to be considered an elite prospect. Then again, you cannot argue with results. In the Florida State League (a known pitchers league, granted) he had 62 K in 44 IP and a 1.22 ERA, this was after dominating the Sally League for half a season and earning an invitation to the futures game.

The most interesting tidbit from the article is from catcher Joe Hietpas:

In the two games Petit pitched for Binghamton last season, catcher Joe Hietpas watched a string of opposing batters whiff on 88-m.p.h. fastballs. Puzzled, Hietpas started to quiz the batters on how hard they thought Petit was throwing. "Everyone guessed 95 miles per hour," he said. "I can't explain what he does out there, but guys cannot pick up the ball. They're completely deceived."

Maybe Petit has an inherent ability that is hard to quantify. Maybe he is fat, so is Bartolo Colon. Maybe he doesn’t throw hard, neither does Greg Maddux or Tim Hudson. I’m not saying he is going to be as good as these guys, but there are exceptions to every rule and just because he is a chunky soft tossing righty doesn’t mean he can’t be a stud. Until he starts getting hit, I am not going to doubt him. He has given no reason for anyone to doubt him yet. Binghamton will obviously be a major test and will go a long way towards silencing the critics.

The Daily News gave us a nice feature on David Wright, one of what will probably be many over the next decade. There is really nothing bad you can say about this guy. In fact, he is almost too good to be true. Maybe when he becomes a little more recognizable he may not be as accommodating as he has been thus far, but he has been unbelievably gracious and humble as he deals with the outsized expectations of NYC. The acquisitions of Beltran and Pedro should be most beneficial for Wright because he will not be the focus of attention he would’ve been without these signings. The only bad thing I’ve heard about him is that apparently he is a George W. Bush fan, but maybe you like our president so if you do, Wright is perfect. If he is smart, he may want to keep that quiet in this city as it might hurt his stardom a little bit.

Newday provided us some continuing coverage of the Willie “Stalin” Randolph team rules controversy. The one that has drawn the most attention is the no facial hair rule except for moustaches. What I think is hypocritical about that is that Randolph happens to have a moustache. I think it is possible to look presentable with facial hair, but I am not the manager.

I don’t know what to make of these new rules. Part of me thinks they are kind of dorky and I wish the Mets would try and take the Red Sox tact of being the anti-Yankees. Then again, it is not surprising that Randolph is bringing in some Yankees influence and if it means more victories, I am fine with it. That is probably how it will work with the players. If they are winning, no one will be complaining, but if there is some trouble in paradise, that is when we will start to hear some grumbling.

Minky's Glove is Worth Ten Wins! No, Not Really

2005-02-16T21:56:00.000-05:00

As many of you have probably seen, ESPN.com has been doing their annual off-season series of “Hot Stove Heaters.” They are all extremely subjective and in my mind, often frustratingly stupid. While I tend to err on the side of sabermetrics, I like to think that I am willing to keep an open mind to other arguments and I can be swayed by non-sabermetric arguments, as long as there is some degree of statistical evidence to back up whatever claim is being made.

Earlier this week, Eric Neel wrote a “Hot Stove Heater” proclaiming Doug Mientkiewicz the best defensive first baseman in the game. In this case, my beef was not with this claim for two reasons. First, Eric Neel is one of the few writers who is able to skillfully toe the line between an understanding of sabermetrics and colorful writing that can illuminate the non-statistical side of baseball. Second, even though Neel did not get into it, statistical evidence (beyond fielding percentage) does support the claim that Mientkiewicz is if not the best, one of the best defensive first baseman in the league and calling him that is not so ridiculous. Conversely, calling Juan Pierre the best base stealer in the league was absolutely ridiculous, but that is for another time. But I digress.

What jumped out at me about this article was a quote by our favorite GM included in the following excerpt:

Minaya figures first base is undervalued in the market place and in the minds of the average fan. "People take the position for granted," he said. He looks at a guy like J.T. Snow of the Giants, a smooth, graceful glove who "saves the Giants 10 games a year," and he anticipates something similar for his club with Mientkiewicz.

So J.T. Snow saves 10 games a year with his glove. As my friend Ted said, “So that is why the Giants are so good! I thought it was Bonds’ hitting, but apparently it is Snow’s glove.”

It’s possible that Omar was speaking off the cuff and didn’t think much about what he was saying, but even speaking in complete hyperbole that is such an outrageous statement it makes me question Omar’s judgment. It is statements like there that bother me about non-statistical analysis. There is no basis for this statement whatsoever and people often take it at face value. In fact, I am a little disappointed that Neel did not take him to task for it, but I guess that was not the point of the story.

Analysts have gone to great length to quantify defense, and it is far from an exact science. But there is no way that any fielder is worth ten wins a season, particularly at first base. Maybe Omar was saying that Minky, versus eight fielders and no first baseman at all, was worth ten wins. If so, that might be true. However, it is not possible that Minky is worth ten more wins than anyone else good enough to make it on a major league field as a first baseman, even our good friend Mike Piazza.

Maybe Orlando Cabrera is ten wins better than me at shortstop, but that is neither here nor there. And maybe I am making too big of a deal of a seemingly innocuous statement, but I just could not get over this statement, not could I get over the fact that it was printed at face value. But if Omar is speaking the truth, that means the Mets are an 81 win team even before you factor in the additions of Beltran and Pedro and a full season of David Wright.

October baseball here we come!

McEwing, More Like McSucking

2005-02-13T21:25:00.000-05:00

As anyone who has read this blog before knows, I hate Joe McEwing. Not as a person mind you, I’m sure he is a good guy, but as a player. Yes, being able to play eight positions is charming and it will always make you a fan favorite, particularly when you look like you are trying really hard. But let’s be honest, he cannot hit and no amount of positional versatility is going to compensate for that.

In the last three seasons, his OPS have been .538, .600 and .609. He is 32 so it is not likely that these figures are going to improve. In those three seasons, he has had a combined 655 plate appearances. It is inexcusable that the Mets have allowed him to come to the plate, on average, over 200 times in each of the last three seasons.

Fortunately, the Mets seemed to have realized this and have signed a bunch of potential back-up middle infielders, which is essentially what McEwing has become despite his ability to moonlight at every other spot on the diamond. While not glamorous, the battle for the Mets bench will be one of the most intense of the spring.

I’m assuming the Mets will carry 12 pitchers, so that leaves five bench spots. Going in, we know that both there is going to be a back-up catcher. Most likely, that will be Jason Phillips but Ramon Castro will have a punchers chance to win the job after Phillips’ disastrous 2004.

As for the outfield, my homeboy Eric Valent is almost assured of a job although I worry that he will not be able to duplicate his promising 2004 season. There will be a fifth outfielder as well, and Ron Calloway seems like a likely candidate despite a .437 OPS for Montreal last season. He makes McEwing look like Clue Haywood. This also depends on when Cameron comes back and how they decide to use Victor Diaz. If Cameron is healthy, having Valent and Diaz as your back-ups is a little dangerous because neither can play center, although both Cameron and Beltran can so that might be the line-up. It all depends on whether or not the Mets want Diaz playing everyday in Norfolk or backing up in the bigs. This will be a tough decision and I am in favor of latter. In some ways, I want to see Cameron take his time coming back so we get a better sense of what Diaz can do. For some reason, Calloway is on the 40-man roster so I am led to believe Omar has some sort of man crush on him from his time in Montreal. That, or he lost a bet. Kerry Robinson and Gerald Williams are both on the NRI list and are equally horrible options.

On the infield, that leaves two more back-up jobs and one of the certainly is going to be a middle infielder. If Andres Galarraga, another NRI, seems healthy, it appears that he might get a shot to be Minky’s platoon partner. He’s old, but he has put up a line of .306/.371/.459 against lefties over the last three years. I have a hard time imagining he will be able to replicate this, but I have been wrong before.

That would leave one spot for Miguel Cairo, Marlon Anderson, Chris Woodward and McEwing. While Cairo has played about 20 games at short in his whole career, it would stand to reason that he will get the job and the rest will be in Norfolk. Plus, the Mets have the added bonus of Matsui and Reyes being able to play both second and short so having a versatile back-up is less important. Besides, Reyes will get hurt at some point so one of these other guys will get a shot.

Wow. What seemed like a complicated position battle wasn’t so complicated after all.

The February Blues

2005-02-10T01:29:00.000-05:00

I’ve got it. The February blues. Sports fans talk about it all of the time, and I’m sure most of you reading this have them as well. The NFL is done, March Madness is weeks away and opening day in Cincy is almost two months away. The Duke-Carolina game tonight was a nice respite, but we all know we’re waiting for Pedro to take the hill in Cincinnati and begin what should be the most exciting season in years. How good the Mets will be remains to be seen, but they will be exciting. Pedro came to camp early for god’s sake, and David Wright was excited about it. Then again, I think Wright would be excited if you kicked him in the groin.

Luckily, for those of us who are desperate for Mets news, here is a little update that someone posted in the comments section on Mets Blog. It gives some details about Piazza’s recent wedding.

Joe McEwing married the two, played the organ, served as the flower girl and was the DJ at the reception. He didn't do any of them well, but was hired because of his versatility.

Cliff Floyd pulled a hammy during the Electric Slide.

Zambrano hurt his elbow doing the Macarena.

Armando Benitez choked during the main course.

When asked how it was that his daughter was the one to catch the bouquet, Art Howe responded, "She battled."

Mike made it very clear to his new bride that he was not willing to try new positions.

Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo showed up to the wedding uninvited, but stuck around for a while, as Piazza was unable to throw them out.

When the bride threw the bouquet, it inadvertently landed in the arms of Doug Mientkiewicz. He refused to give it back, stating that it landed in his hands and it was his right to keep it.

Those who have been reading this blog have sensed my distaste for McEwing, in my next post I will break down the Mets bench situation which is as up in the air as the bullpen and show just how bad McEwing is. Even if he is a good DJ.

Omar Says Maggli-No

2005-02-07T21:48:00.000-05:00

First off, I want to apologize for my delinquency with Metsmerized of late. As I’ve mentioned before, I just moved and began a new job, and the new job has been a lot more hectic than I originally expected. Hopefully, I can back on schedule starting now.

So the big news in baseball this week (besides the Yankees inking Buddy Groom) is the Tigers signing Magglio Ordonez, a player long thought to be on the Mets radar this offseason. When I first read about this contract, I honestly thought it was a typo. Five years $75 million with the potential to be worth $105 million over seven years to Magglio, Beltran is suddenly looking like a steal.

There was a time when the consensus in baseball was that Magglio might have to take a one year deal or an incentive laden multi-year deal a la Pudge Rodriguez, his new teammate. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, whatever you think about Scott Boras as a person, the guy is good at his job.

Yes, there is a clause that allows the Tigers to void the contract if he has a recurrence of the knee injury he had last season and it lands him on the DL for more than 25 days; however, what if he doesn’t have a recurrence, but the injury has debilitated him so that he is no longer the same player? He could also make it through the season and then have a recurrence the follwing year, or better yet, re-injure it with less than 25 games remaing. Yes he is a year younger, but he is getting more years and money per year than Carlos Delgado.

Not to sound like a whiny Mets fan, but I definitely get the sense that there is a double standard in the media when it comes to the Mets. Can you imagine the outcry in the media if the Mets made this deal? They would be accused of just trying to buy a division title and that they don’t know what they are doing. When the Tigers spend money like they did on Pudge, Percival and Magglio, they are applauded for trying to spend their money to win to put the best product on the field. All three of those are questionable contracts and when you consider what happens if Pudge and Magglio meet certain clauses in their contracts, those could look like two of the worst in baseball in about two years. I’m no Will Carroll, but catchers, and outfielders with horrific knee injuries tend not to age well.

Often, the best measure of a general manager is not the moves the make, but the moves they don’t make. In this case, kudos to Omar for backing off this red flag. The Mets have had plenty over the years and they don’t need another.

Other thoughts…
• The Mets have updated their 40-man roster, and I just don’t get it. McEwing stays, and Garcia his .371 OBP is a non-roster invitee. To be honest, this is more about McEwing that Garcia. The Mets need to cut this guy loose. If they want a nice guy who tries hard, I’m available and I would play for a lot less than the league minimum if they let me. I once played every position in an IM softball season, so I’m versatile just like Super Joe.
• Ramon Castro is also on the NRI list for the Mets. This guy hit 18 bombs in 2002 and I wonder if Jason Phillips is feeling the heat a little bit. While I don’t like the idea of spring training dictating position battles, this could be an interesting one to watch.

Note: I realize my font is larger than normal, for some reason the blogging program is not letting me make it smaller. The readers with poorer vision will benefit I guess.

Fearless Forecaster

2005-02-02T22:41:00.000-05:00

All has been relatively quiet on the Mets front since last weeks Mientkiewicz deal. Mets fans and writers are so used to action this offseason that is seems like rumors are flying for the sake of rumors. At this point, it seems as though the team the Mets have now is the one that is going to enter the season. Obviously, they are going to be better than last season’s squad in which my boy Eric Valent made a great case for team MVP. The questions is, how much better? I figured I’d look into Bill James pythagorean method (with help from Baseball Prospectus PECOTA) to try and figure out how much better.

Last season the Mets were 71-91. They scored 684 runs and allowed 731 runs.

To review, the pythagorean formula is:

Winning Percentage= Runs Scored^2 / (Runs Scored^2 + Runs Allowed^2)

So, for the Mets it was: 684^2 / (684^2 + 731^2) = .467

When you multiply .467 by 162, you get 75.6, which means the Mets underperformed their pythagorean projection by about 5 games. Now the problem is figuring out how much better their run differential will be.

I like to think of myself as a relatively objective Mets fans so I will try and maintain that objectivity in my projection; however, I know that as a fan, it is hard to not envision a best case scenario. If you think I am being to conservative or too optimistic, please let me know.
I will go position by position to try and decipher where the Mets will gain and lose runs. I will be using VORP, which is designed to measure “the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.” My estimates are not the most scientific, but they should be decent approximations.

Catcher-This is one position where the Mets stand to gain a lot of runs. Essentially, his at bats will be replaced by Mientkiewicz as Piazza and Minky will be manning catcher and first whereas last season it was Piazza and Phillips. But to keep it simple, lets say Piazza reaches his projected VORP of 24.2, that is a gain of about 30 runs over Phillips miserable 2004.
Difference: +30

First base-Unfortunately, a lot of the gain at catcher will be lost at first because Minky can’t hit like Mikey. While Minky’s projected VORP of 12.7 seems conservative, the odds of him putting up 29.9 (Piazza’s 2004 figure) are slim; however, a VORP of 20 is realistic if he stays healthy.
Difference:-10

Second base-Hard to say, but Reyes and the other knuckleheads who manned second were pretty awful last year and Matsui was coming into his own when he got hurt. If Kaz reaches his projection of 25.9, it would be a gain of about 10 runs for the Mets.
Difference: +10

Shortstop:A complete wild card. I would not be surprised by anything Reyes done this season. PECOTA has him pegged for a VORP of 12.7. I am going to declare this a loss for the Mets as Reyes has done nothing to indicate he is the star he was supposed to be.
Difference: -5

Third: Wigginton and Wright were a good combo, Wright alone should be better; however, Wright and Wiggy combined for a VORP of 42.5, if Wright does that alone it would be fantastic. I’ll call it a push.
Difference: 0

Left field: Another big question mark. Which Cliff Floyd will show up this season? The real unknown is how much he will play. PECOTA foresees an upgrade in 3.1 runs for Floyd this season. I’d like to think that he can at the very least replicate his performance last season; however, it should be noted that his primary replacements (Spencer and Valent) played quite well in his absence so I will call this one a push as well.
Difference: 0

Centerfield: Holy improvement, Batman! Cameron’s VORP in 2004 was a respectable 27.0, Beltran projects a VORP of 51.6. Enough sa id.
Difference: +25

Right field: As I said in a previous column, if Cameron puts up the same season in right, his VORP would be lower due to higher offensive expectations in right. Luckily, the Mets rightfielders last season were about as productive as Danny Heep with the exception of the three weeks when Hidalgo did his Manny Ramirez impressive. Therefore, Cameron won’t have to do much to hold it dow but a small gain is possible.
Difference: 0

Bench: Who knows? Just not having McEwing should be worth about five runs, right?
Difference: +5

Pitching: Pitching is a little tougher to predict. While there are five main starters, there are always others who get starts over the course of the season. So I am going to be less scientific here and use the 731 runs allowed last season as a starting point. With the addition of Pedro and hopefully a healthy Benson and Zambrano, it would seem the Mets should be better, but it is hard to be confident of this.

While everyone would agree that Pedro is an upgrade of Al Leiter, Leiter did have an ERA of 3.21 in 174 IP so Pedro might not be that much of an upgrade. Glavine was great in the first half, but mediocre in the second. There is no reason to be confident in the health of Benson and Zambrano, but that could be where Rick Peterson comes in. Trachsel will most likely be Trachsel. For the record, PECOTA is not particularly optimistic about the starters beside Pedro, predicting a total VORP of 40.2. Ouch. Fortunately, it predicts a VORP of 53.3 for Petey. Also, with the bullpen a huge unknown, it is hard to predict an upgrade in pitching so I will essentially call it a push. The fan in me will predict a gain of 5 runs.
Difference: +5

Based on this, the Mets will score 55 more runs than they scored last season. That would bring their total to 739. If they allow 5 fewer runs, that would be 726. To review:

Winning Percentage= Runs Scored^2 / (Runs Scored^2 + Runs Allowed^2)

Therefore, 739^2 / (739^2 + 726^2) = 546121 / (546121+ 527076) = .509

Then, if we multiply .509 by 162 we get 82.4, and improvement of 11 games of their actual record, but only a gain on 6 games in their pythagorean record. This might seem disappointing, and maybe I am being too conservative; however, it should be noted that the total VORP projection for Beltran and Pedro is 104.9. Ten runs of VORP is equivalent to about one win. Essentially Beltran and Pedro alone are worth the ten extra wins the pythagorean method predicts, that is, if everything else remains equal. To be honest, that looks like it could be the case. For every improvement at one position, I foresee an equivalent drop off at another.

Then again, we also know that their are other mitigating factors in a pythagorean record, and while the Mets underperformed last season, they could over perform by the same amount next season and have about 87 wins, enough to vault them into the playoff hunt. Also, the Mets defense should be a lot better and could be worth a few more runs on its own.

So who knows, all this excercise taught me is what I already know. The Mets should be a winning team, and if all goes well, they could win 90 games. Like I said, feel free to let me know if you think my methods or projections are idiotic. I encourage an open discourse at Metsmerized.

It Ain't Sosa

2005-01-31T20:49:00.000-05:00

Breathe easy Mets fans, Sammy Sosa will not be our problem. He is supposedly en route to Baltimore in exchange for Jerry Hairston, Mike Fontenot, Dave Crouthers and a boatload of cash. Admittedly, I was at first relieved when I heard about this trade. Like most fans, I was not too pumped about the idea of Sosa on the Mets, but that was mainly because rumor had it that Sosa would only waive his no trade clause if he received a contract extension from his new team. Apparently, this was not the case.

Sosa has agreed to a trade without a contract extension and the Orioles appear to have made about like bandits. They are giving up Hairston, a player they don’t need since they have Brian Roberts and two marginal prospects for a year of Sosa at $9 million. In any other division, they would be a force. While I know the Cubs were desperate to rid themselves of a player they perceive as a cancer, they may have given up a bit too much here. If the Mets could’ve gotten Sosa under similar circumstances (i.e. for Cliff Floyd), I would’ve been all for it.

Crazy, you ask? Hardly. Think of it this way, Sosa for one year versus Floyd for two? The Mets cannot get rid of Floyd’s contract soon enough and this would’ve been a way of doing so. Not only that, Sosa will probably be better than Floyd next season, PECOTA (the projection system of Baseball Prospectus) sure thinks so. Here are the predicted lines for each player

Sosa 385 AB, .259/.351/.515, 26 HR, 25.3 VORP
Floyd 381 AB, .270/.363/.476, 17 HR, 23.1 VORP

If Floyd has a season like this, with a few more ABs, the Mets would be ecstatic; however, when you consider that this trade would’ve allowed them to get out from under his contract a year sooner, it would’ve been beneficial. Even last year, supposedly a terrible one for Sosa, he was .253/.332/.517 while Floyd was .260/.352/.462 and played in 18 fewer games. This analysis ignores park effects, but it shows that at the very least, they were comparable players.

Mets fans have fallen in love with Omar, but were fearful of the acquisition of Sosa who has fallen from grace faster than Britney Spears because they felt Omar had an infatuation with Sosa since he signed him. That might be true, but getting him for one year would not have been terrible. I cannot imagine he is as awful a guy as the Cubs have made him out to be. Obviously, the guy is an egomaniac, so are 90% of professional athletes. The Cubs would have you believe he was melanoma incarnate. He was made the scapegoat for the Cubs failures and they have suffered for it because they did not get appropriate value for his ability. The Orioles reaped the benefits, it could’ve been the Mets.

Sorry For the Delay

2005-01-31T01:04:00.000-05:00

My move is about done, so Metsmerized will return tomorrow at its normal frequency.

Who Needs a Farm System Anyway, Right?

2005-01-26T11:10:00.000-05:00

For all the goodwill the Mets had established with their fans this offseason, a lot of it was undermined yesterday when they compounded their failure to get Delgado with a boneheaded trade that involves them sending rising first base prospect Ian Bladergroen to the Red Sox for Doug Mientkiewicz. While it won’t garner the attention of the now infamous “Black Friday,” this trade should be mentioned in the same breath as it illustrates two factors extremely well. They don’t care about their farm system and they don’t understand the concept of replacement level talent.

The latter is completely revealed with the Mientkiewicz trade as he actually performed below replacement level last season posting a VORP of -1.5 with stints with the Twins and Red Sox. Craig Brazell had a higher VORP last season. Now this is not to say that Mientkiewicz will post a negative VORP in 2005. In fact, I think he is much better than that; however, how much better? “Much better” than -1.5 is not that hard to find.

In his defense, Mientkiewicz has had a couple of strong years but they are rooted deeply in his batting average. When he can get that BA into the .300 range as he has done in 2001 and 2003, he isn’t terrible because he draws a decent number of walks and has had two seasons with OBP over .390. On the downside, he has the power of Dave Magadan on “the clear.” Coincidentally, BP lists Magadan as Mientkiewicz’s most comparable player so Mets fans should know what to expect. I don’t care how good of a defensive player he is, he is a light hitting first baseman who will make $3.5 million next season. I figured if the Mets wanted him desperately, they could’ve gotten him for next to nothing considering the Red Sox were eager to rid themselves of him. So Heath Bell? Tyler Yates? I wouldn’t have liked those either considering Travis Lee is available for no prospects and a lot less than $3.5 million, but Ian Bladergroen?

In case you were wondering, Bladergroen was just named the Mets fourth best prospect by Baseball America after mauling Sally League pitching with a line of .342/.397/.595. Yes, he had a wrist injury that curtailed his season, and yes, at 22 he is on the old side for the Sally League, but the Mets are short on guys in their system who can hit, and shorter on first baseman. This is a big season for Bladergroen as he could have shown himself to be on the fast track for Queens with another strong season coupled with recovery from his injury. Now they have Mientkiewicz for one season and no long term plan at first.

Some will try and justify this trade with Mientkiewicz’s defense, but it is no better than Lee’s (or Oleurd’s for that matter) and will cost a lot more in terms of money and in talent. In fact, in terms of Runs Above Replacement defensively, Lee and Mientkiewicz are equals with Lee being 97 RAR in 782 games and Minky being 80 RAR in 675 games. Simply stunning.

All of this in on the heels of my own encounter with the Mets caravan that had me feeling great about the Mets. As I have mentioned before, I am moving out of town and my friends took me to the Knicks game against the Suns last night. After the game, being the high rollers that we are, we went to Jay-Z’s 40/40 Club where we were instantly whisked away to a private room. After a few overpriced shots and beers, a group of three gentlemen I recognized walked in and it was none other than Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel and David Wright who wanted to check out the $100,000 bottle of Cognac in a glass case in our room. We made some small talk and I was honored that Wright even recognized me from some freelance work I have done on the Mets. I offered them the next game of pool, but they politely declined. Me and my crew are all Mets fans and left on a high only to come crashing down this morning with the news of this trade.

Alas, we will have to get over this one and deal with it. The Mets will still be better next season and in the near future I will be doing a deeper analysis of what we can expect in terms of wins and losses as well as an interview with Jim Baker of Baseball Prospectus.

Conflicting Reports

2005-01-24T13:05:00.000-05:00

Is it just me, or are the front offices getting shreweder, or the press just dumber? I cannot remember an offseason where so many contradictory reports came out. Which reports are we supposed to believe? Are the Mets in on Delgado or are they out? Some say yes, others say no. Some say maybe.

After it appearing as though the Mets were removing themselves, it now appears as though they are back in the game according to WFAN and MetsBlog. If so, are they willing to trump four years and $48 million? At this point, I have no idea which reports to believe and I have resigned myself to not believing any of them. The one report that had me most scratching my head was that if the Mets don't get Delgado, they are going to go after Travis Lee and Magglio Ordonez. As I've said before, I am all for Travis Lee, but Magglio? The Mets just made a big stink about making Mike Cameron feel comfortable about playing right field, now they are going after a high priced rightfielder? I find this one hard to believe, but it wouldn't be the first time the Mets surprised me.

When Delgado signs, then we can talk. Until then, I won't believe any of it.

Delgado's Decision Day

2005-01-23T22:53:00.000-05:00

It is always hard to tell when these free agent bidding wars are going to come to a head. It seems as though the player just decides at some point that they should make a decision and does so. It seems as though as that is what has happened with Carlos Delgado, who according to sources, is set to make a decision in the next couple of days.

About two days ago, it appeared as though the Mets were lowballing him and he was Texas bound; however, it appears that Omar has squeezed a few more dollars from the not so tightfisted Wilpons. As we learned from the Beltran negotiations, Texas has no state income tax so obviously the same deal is worth more with the Rangers. Fortunately for the Mets, they can offer him something that the Rangers cannot, and that is the opportunity to play first base everyday. With Teixeira in Texas, Delgado does not strike me as a great fit there as $12 million seems like a lot for a DH. On the same note, $12 million seems like a lot for a 36 year-old slow footed first baseman which is what Delgado will be in three years.

With Delgado on the Mets, they are poised to be a legitimate force in 2005. Like Pedro, he is very much a “win now” signing. Beltran, due to his age, is a “win now” and “win five years from now signing.” My concerns with Pedro and Delgado is that in three years their contracts will look bad and seem almost untradeable, much like the current Piazza situation. Before the 2004 season, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA had Delgado projected to be worth about four wins above replacement in 2005, and only two wins in 2008. Due to their financial status, the Mets are able to have the luxury of having a couple of albatrosses without it completely hamstringing them financially; however, they cannot fall into the trap of forgoing developing talent and think that they can just fill holes with free agents. It is a business plan that is not sustainable. The Yankees are trying it and seem poised for a major downfall in a couple of years. Ideally, while Delgado and Martinez decline, players like Wright, Reyes and Zambrano will improve to compensate for the diminished production.

Even if the Mets do not get Delgado, I still see them as a competitive team and would love to see them nab Travis Lee as plan B. Don’t get me started on Mientkiewicz, he would cost more than Lee in that he makes more, and we would have to give up a prospect to get him. On top of that, he is no better. But when you look at the potential lineup below, it is hard not to get excited for the Mets in 2005.

Matsui
Reyes
Beltran
Delgado
Wright
Piazza
Floyd
Cameron

Expensive? Definitely. Nasty? Certainly. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Note: I am in the process of moving so my posts may be less consistent over the next week or so.

Bullpen Fever

2005-01-21T11:41:00.000-05:00

While most of the recent press has been centered around the right field and first base situations, the Mets still have a bullpen that is unsettled. With the exception of Braden Looper and Mike DeJean, all the other spots are up for grabs. Assuming the Mets go with 12 pitchers, this leaves five spots for about eight guys who are somewhat indistinguishable. This most likely means that the Mets will be goinginto camp with open auditions, something that I abhor because it is a pretty dicey proposition to fill out your roster based on performance in spring training. Then again, there is little in the track record of most of these gents to separate them. Sideburns Peterson will be earning his paycheck this season.

Obviously, the Mets will have at least one lefthander so that leaves Pedro Feliciano, Felix Heredia and Dae Koo will be battling for one orpossibly two spots. Of those three, I would have to figure Heredia is the front runner because a) they gave up Stanton to get him and b) he has the best track record of the three, which, if you look at his career, is not saying much. He seemed to turn a corner in 20002 and 20003, with ERAs of 3.61 and 2.69, before regressing back to his career norms in 2004. Those hoping for a return of his 2003 form should not get too excited, those lower ERAs came with no significant improvement in K/9 or K/BB so it appears as though those two seasons were anomalies.

As for the northpaws, it is still hard to tell as the Mets may not be done dealing. Rumors indicate there is some interest in Jeff Nelson and if they sign him to a minor league deal, I’d imagine he would make the team unless he absolutely stunk up St. Lucie. Tyler Yates was formidable in September (10 IP, 13 K, 4 BB) and it’d nice to think that Tyler Yates the reliever can be the force the Mets hoped Tyler Yates the starter would be. He most likely has a job to lose. I’m hoping the same can be said for Heath Bell who really impressed me when he was on the mound. The 5 homers allowed in 17 IP is somewhat disconcerting, but the 27 K are enticing; however, he never had a particularly high K-rate in the minors so my eyes might be deceiving me, let’s hope the Mets don’t let that happen.

Yates and Bell are the only two guys who I would really like to see in the pen, but that could be because they are youngish and there is always hope they will bust out. With Roberto Hernandez and Bartolome Fortunato, you know what you are going to get and it is not going to be great, and could be terrible. Some fans were dismayed the Mets let Ricky Bottalico go, but while he pitched well last season (3.38 ERA, 7.92 K/9) I can’t get worked up about a 35 year old with a 3.96 career ERA, and only one season with an ERA under 3.00, and that was in 1995.

Whatever, happens, the bullpen will be where Rick Peterson earns his keep. Being able to turn decent arms into effective relievers is the mark of a good pitching coach, which is what Peterson is supposed to be.

Captain America Is No Killer Cam

2005-01-18T13:49:00.000-05:00

The recent gossip inMetland has now divided into two parts. Will the Mets trade MikeCameron and will they sign Carlos Delgado? The other question that has yet to be answered is if the two are mutually exclusive. Everything would become a lot clearer to Mets fans if they knew whether they needed to move Cameron before they signed Delgado; however, this information would surely hinder Omar’s leverage so I doubt we will find out until after the fact.

The one trade rumor that seems to be generating the most buzz has theMets shipping Cameron to Oakland for Eric Byrnes and Chad Bradford. Assuming we are working in a vacuum where the Cameron trade and the Delgado signing are not mutually exclusive, this trade does not make too much sense to me, particularly when you consider the Mets would be including an undetermined amount of cash in the deal.

Offensively, Cameron and Byrnes are basically equals and are actually pretty similar offensive players. They both have a little pop and decent walk rates,while Byrnes hits for a higher average, Cameron walks more so they end up with similar OBP from year to year as a result. In fact, despite being a career .248 hitter, Cameron has a career OBP of .340. Conversely,Byrnes is a career .271 hitter with a .336 OBP. All of this talk is before you get into their defense which gives Cameron an enormous advantage. As a top tier defensive centerfielder, he would immediately become one of the top two or three defensive rightfielders, at least when it comes to shagging flies because his arm will certainly leave a little something to be desired.

The only argument I can see in favor of Byrnes is that he is younger, but only by about three years. The Mets are looking at Cameron as the solution for many years in right, only two. Also, it is not as if Byrnes is so young that we can expect a significant improvement. What you see is what you are going to get. A lot of Mets complain about Cameron’s strikeouts, but beyond the fact that those are overrated, Byrnes is no Juan Pierre as he fanned 111 times last season. If Mets fans want a contact hitter to replace Cameron, he is not the guy.

The other reason I can think of for Omar wanting Byrnes is that even though he is not Latino, he is at least a cult hero in the Dominican (they call him “Captain American”) for his gritty style of play that has been a huge hit in the Dominican winter league and would also be a fan favorite in New York’s Dominican community. Sorry, I’m not sold.

Even if you add Bradford into the mix, I am still skeptical. In fact, I am skeptical about any trade with Billy Beane. Have these GMs read Moneyball? If I were a GM, I would operate under the assumption that Beane is smarter than me and basicallly refuse to trade with him. Isn’t Bradford supposed to be one of Beane’s diamond’s in the rough? If so, why does he want to get rid of him? While he is still effective against, righties, lefties tear him up and if the Mets want a ROOGY, they might as well go sign Steve Reed on the cheap.

Yes, Cameron has said he wants to be traded, but I think the Mets should try the diplomacy route and try and sell him on being part of an exciting turnaround in New York. Maybe they have and he has become evenmore disgruntledand feel they need to move him. If so, I am not sure this is the right deal. My instinct therefore leads me to believe that Omar needs to move him before signing Delgado and is willing to move him for the first reasonable deal.

Listen To DMX

2005-01-13T16:15:00.000-05:00

“Y’all been eating long enough now, stop being greedy,
Keep it real partner, give to the needy.”

-DMX

So Carlos Beltran is on board, and Mets fans can smell blood. The Mets have a hole at first base and whereas once the cry was for Doug Mientkiewicz or Travis Lee, the name du jour is Carlos Delgado. Why not just go get the best available first baseman and one of the top five hitting first baseman in the league? We’ve got the money, right? It makes sense, but it strikes me as somewhat hypocritical.

Before starting Metsmerized, I had been reading a lot of these Mets blogs and I still do. The people who write them are obviously passionate as well as knowledgeable as evidenced by many of them with strong followings. Beyond discussing Mets maneuvers, one of the prevailing themes on these blogs, and a sentiment promoted by myself as well, is a hatred for the Yankees. One of main reasons Mets fans (and other baseball fans for that matter) seem to hate the Yankees is because they believe they only win because they spend a lot of money. When I look at the prospect of the Mets signing Delgado to go along with Beltran and Pedro, it seems like a Yankees move. A move that would make everyone from Doris in Rego Park to Vinnie from Canarsie scream foul. A move that would group the Mets with the Yankees as far as the rest of the league was concerned.

Yes, the Mets have spent money in the past and yes the Yankees would still have a much higher payroll than the Mets; however, the difference is that these signings will actually make the Mets good. No one cared when the Mets spent money poorly and lost, but now they have adopted the Yankees philosophy, or at least the Yankees philosophy before they signed Wright and Pavano, of spending money on quality. This will make them winners. Everyone is proclaiming Omar a god, but what is so godlike about paying players more than anyone else was willing to pay them? Obviously, that is what you have to do to lure players to a team with a bad rep and a decrepit stadium, but if the Wilpons had given Jim Duquette carte blanche with the checkbook, he could’ve pulled it off as well. For the record, Jim Duquette had two of the most valuable signings in terms of bang for the buck last season in Looper and Cameron. Unfortunately, those are not the type of signings that get you on the back page. There is a lot written and said about Omar’s ability to relate to Latin American players, which helps him sign them. I don’t buy it yet. When Omar starts luring Puerto Rican and Dominican players for below market value, then we can talk about his influence on Latin American players. Until then, he is a GM with a fat checkbook.

This is not to say that I am opposed to the Delgado signing. I will do a more careful prediction when the line-up is more in place, but based on last years runs scored and allowed and expected improvement, the Mets right now are about an 88 win team based on the Pythagorean win formula if they started to season today and did not suffer significant injuries to key players.

With Delgado, the Mets would certainly be considered favorites in the NL East and one of the best teams in the NL. While Beltran is a move for now and the future, Martinez and Delgado are essentially win-now maneuvers. They could look like expensive place- holders in two years when Pedro pitches 120 innings and Delgado looks like a cross between Piazza and a boulder at first. That being said, they are using their resources to win and cannot be blamed for that which has always been how I’ve felt about the Yankees, despite my distaste for them. A few years ago, the Mets and Yankees had similar payrolls and were both in the World Series. The Mets made some poor choices and the Yankees launched YES, which has been a source of great revenue for them and allowed to surpass the $200 million plateau. One can only imagine that the Mets are hoping their cable network will do the same for them and launch them into the Yankees stratosphere.

If the Mets sign Delgado, we should enjoy it as fans because the Mets will have their best team since 1999, and possibly since 1988, but be prepared for the rest of the world’s perception of the Mets to change. When the Mets are referred to as “a poor man’s Yankees,” we’ll need to bite our tongues because deep down, we know it will be true. Then again, maybe I am just a wet blanket and instead of heeding the words of DMX, maybe should listen to Gordon Gecko who said, “Greed is good.” Heck, it works for the Yankees.

"I'll Never Be a Jerk Like Randy Johnson"

2005-01-11T13:18:00.000-05:00

That is the loose translation of Beltran's response to a spanish speaking reporter at his press conference when asked about how he will handle the New York media. How fantastic is it that Randy Johnson is the one blowing up at the media when everyone is questioning how Beltran will handle the New York press? While I questioned Beltran’s monetary value many times, I don’t doubt his talent and the Mets will be better as a result of his presence for years to come. What a wonderful time to be a Mets fan. Nonetheless, others may try and rain on the Mets Beltran parade, so I have provided a guide to refuting ignorant claims about Senor Beltran.

Claim #1) “Carlos Beltran has always been a product of his home park.”
Some interesting news about Carlos Beltran appeared in my inbox this morning courtesy of Metsmerized loyalist Bernard Gilkey. Take a look at Beltran’s home and road stats last season:

Home .225/.316/.458, 15 HR, 284 AB
Road .305/.412/.629, 23 HR, 315, AB

The Juice Box and Kauffman Stadium both have reps of being hitter heavens, but they were not in 2004 as evidenced by their park factors. So Beltran having somewhat depressed home stats would make sense; however, having such fantastic road stats can only bode well for him because it indicates that his numbers have never been a product of his environment. In fact, for his career, his home and road numbers are nearly identical. So if anyone tries to tell you that Beltran was a product of his home park, feel free to beat them like they stole something as you provide some valuable insight on his career splits.

Claim #2) “$17 million is a lot to pay a guy who hit .267.”
Why are so many people unable to see the bigger picture? This is not just about my sabermetric self pointing out that batting average is overrated and that OBP and SLG are more important, but that batting average averages fluctuate greatly because balls in play involve a great deal of luck. I have such a hard time understanding how seemingly intelligent people have such a hard time fathoming this. For example, Ichiro has hit .350, .321, .312, .372 over his four years. His skills haven’t changed, it is just that when it comes to balls that stay in the park, the hitter has little control over where they land. Beltran may hit .260 next year and he may hit .320; either way, his walk and power numbers should maintain making him an extremely valuable player, even if he hits .260.

Claim #3) “Beltran really wanted to play for the Yankees and was willing to go there for six-years and $99.6”
Don’t believe this. Boras was just trying to get the Yankees interested and hopefully begin a bidding war, there is no way Boras was going to let Carlos go to the Yankees for fewer years and less money per year.

Folks, don’t let ignorance dampen your excitement about Beltran. Follow this guide whenever some hater drops some stupidity on you. Sit back and enjoy how much better the Mets are going to be this year and prepare for an exciting year at Shea; however, with Omar’s job is not done. Will he make a major run at Carlos Delgado? Is he comfortable with Cameron in right field? These are just some of the issues I will be tackling in the days to come.

More thoughts...In the "when it rains, it pours department," the Mets signed Philip Humber and it looks like "Not so Super" Joe McEwing may be on the outs. No disrespect to Joe who I'm sure is a great guy, but I've come up with a little formula for him over the years. Mets wins=fewer McEwing AB. Pretty simple stuff, don't let math intimidate you folks.

He's Rich Bitch!!!

2005-01-09T19:39:00.000-05:00

Not to toot my own horn, but I am going to toot my own horn. On December 27th, I wrote the following on this blog.

“Based on gut and nothing else which is usually not the way I like to do things, Beltran will end up on the Mets for six-years $114 million. You heard it here first folks.”

Sure, I was off on the terms, but I felt all along that he was going to end up on the Mets. Once it became clear that the Yankees were not really interested for some bizarrre known only to them, it became clear that the Mets were not going to be outbid so if Beltran went anywhere else, it was not going to be about money.

I have written a lot about how he is overrated based on his playoff performance. This is not to say that I don’t think he is an elite player, it is just that his perceived value is at an all time high, way above his actual value which is still high. While I was not 100% in favor of the move, there were certainly worse potential signings. For example, Russ Ortiz’s deal. Beltran is young, dynamic and will retain a great deal of value for the life of the contract; however, with Mike Cameron in the picture it seems like the Mets are trying to put a square peg in a round hole. Well, they’ve done it and all the negatives aside, there is no doubt that the Mets will be a much improved and much more exciting team next season. The question is, how much better will they be?

Last season Beltran had a VORP of 74.5, 13th best in the majors for position players. Mike Cameron had a VORP of 27.0. If those numbers were to be repeated, or at least the margin stayed the same which is fair to assume based on expected performance, the Mets are gaining 47.5 runs from the centerfield position. That alone is a gain of 4 to 5 wins. With Cameron switching to right, his numbers would produce a lower VORP since the expected performance for rightfielders are greater; however, the Mets did not get much performance rom right field anyway as Richard Hidalgo produced a VORP of 7.4 on the Mets, while Shane Spencer had a 7.3 and Karim Garcia a 0.1. Cameron can at the very least duplicate that while playing a stellar right field. On a side note, I was thinking that the Mets should play Cliff Floyd on the left field line and make sure nothing gets down the line while make Beltran and Cameron responsible for 80% of the outfield. The Mets outfield alignment should be interesting to watch.

The Mets will get greater production from third as they will have a full season from David Wright, an improvement for Kaz Matsui and Cliff Floyd can also be expected. Piazza should still be one of the better offensive catchers, but is clearly in decline but I wouldn’t expect a collapse. Who the hell knows about Reyes and first base is still open. Coupled with a deep starting rotation, and the Mets have to be considered contenders. With Wright and Beltran as the backbone of the franchise for the rest of the decade, this is the most exciting time to be a Mets fan in ages.

More thoughts...Miguel Cairo might have the worst agent in the history of major league baseball. He had a career year as a starter in a high profile environment with the Yankees, and he parlayed that into a back-up job for less than a million bucks. Omar must be an animal at the negotiating table. Well, based on the contracts of Pedro and Beltran maybe not, be he definitely fought tooth and nail with Cairo.

Wilson Phillips

2005-01-06T13:23:00.000-05:00

The Mets finally made another move today, but this is not a big time maneuver of the Beltran variety. In Omar’s quest to hoard every back-up middle infielder that hits like Joe McEwing, the Mets sent Vance Wilson to the Tigers for Anderson Hernandez. The Mets now have a systems stacked with light hitting speedy outfielders of the Wayne Lydon mold, and banjo hitting middle infielders of the Chris Woodward mode. Catch the fever!

What this trade actually means for the Mets is that Mike Piazza is locked in at catcher and Jason Phillips will be the back-up. One could argue the merits of Wilson over Phillips based on Wilson’s superior 2005, but despite a hugely disappointing 2004, Phillips is the better hitter. Nevertheless, choosing between the two of them is like a kid choosing between brussel sprouts and liver. Here are each of their numbers, first for 2004 and then for their career.

2004
Wilson .274/.335/.427 4 HR, 157 AB
Phillips .218/.298/.326 7 HR, 362 AB

Career
Wilson .254/.308/.384 17 HR, 649 AB
Phillips .262/.337/.389 19 HR, 791 AB

Okay, I can’t believe I have never made a Wilson Phillips joke or that his never occurred to me until I saw there names written one on top of the other. I am truly disappointed in myself. Do you think the team ever made them sing duets of “Hold On?” Those words are prophetic for Wilson on this day. Vance, if you’re reading just know that:

Someday somebody’s gonna make you want to turn around and say goodbye

Until then baby are you going to let them hold you down and make you cry

Don’t you know? Don’t you know things can change

Things’ll go your way if you hold on for one more day

Can you hold on for one more day

Things’ll go your way

Hold on for one more day

Omar made you turn around and say goodbye, but don’t let him hold you down and make you cry. You have the best gig in baseball as you will have backed up the two best hitting catchers of this era making you a glorified bullpen catcher.

But I digress. Wilson was much better last year, but Phillips is tops in career numbers. Phillips is an interesting case as his numbers derive from one good season and one awful one. Mets brass must be thinking that while Phillips might not be as good as the 2003 version, he is better than the 2004 version and a better hitter than Wilson overall. 2004 was Wilson’s best year, but he is 31 and that was probably as good as it was going to get for him, Phillips is also three years younger and more likely to rebound.

Wilson does possess a better defensive rep, but with catchers their defensive rep tends to have an inverse relationship with their offensive prowess. The crappy hitting catchers are considered wizards with the leather (Mike Matheny and Brad Ausmus) while the good hitters are considered a defensive disaster (Piazza and A.J. Pierzynski). While this is sometimes true (like in the case of Piazza), poor hitting catchers defensive prowess are myths propagated by the organizations for which they play as a justification for keeping them around.

Wilson has been in the organization since 1993 which I assume is tops among the Mets so it will be sad to see our longest tenured player go. Wait a second, no it won’t. I don’t really care. Back-up catchers come and go and part of the gig is playing wherever someone will employ you. Good luck Vance, start studying those AL hitters for the 20 games you start next season when Pudge is tired or hungover.

Hall of Fame, more like Hall of Stupid Voters (zing!)

2005-01-04T16:28:00.000-05:00

The Beltran stand-off is in full swing, but since I have posted about Carlos ad nauseam, I thought I’d take this opportunity to weight in on some random baseball topics, such as today’s Hall of Fame voting.

I am not going to drone on about who I think should or shouldn’t be in, what I will drone on about how ridiculous the process is. I hate the idea that players gain support as they are on the ballot each year. Ryne Sandberg is a perfect example, as he got 49.2% in 2003, 61.1% last year and 76.2% this year, just above the 75% minimum required for induction. Who are these people that change their minds? I can see one or two people changing their minds, but it is dozens. Sandberg played in exactly zero games over the last two seasons, so his numbers haven’t changed at all. As far as I see it, you either are a hall of famer or you’re not. If it were up to me, everyone would be on the ballot for exactly one year and that would be it. The Hall of Fame should be for the very elite and I hate how these borderline cases hang around for 10 years before finally getting in (hello Jim Rice). It is as if voters have to talk themselves into voting for people. For godsakes, all you need is 5% to stay on the ballot. Does anyone who starts at 5% have a snowballs chance in hell of making the hall? It should be 50% to stay on the ballot.

I am not opposed to Sandberg getting in, in fact, as the best second basemen in baseball in the 1980s he deserves his place. For me, the Hall is not about number, it is about how you ranked against your peers. That is why Rhino is in even though Jeff Kent and Robbie Alomar have superior numbers, and why Gary Carter is in too. Next to Piazza and I-Rod, Carter’s numbers look meek, but he was the best catcher of the late 1970s and 80s.

As for this year’s voting, who the hell are these voters? 26 people voted for Willie McGee, 26 people! To quote Dick Vitale, “are you serious?!?!?!?!?” The guy had a career line of .295/.333/.396 with 79 career HR and 352 SB in 473 attempts. I know it was the light hitting 80s, but if he is a hall of famer, so is Lenny Dykstra. Who are the 26 accredited voters that punch the hole next to this guy’s name? Darryl Strawberry got only 6 votes and he was twice the player McGee. I think these voters were smoking some of the stuff Strawberry used to, or maybe they were using leftover ballots from the 2000 Florida election and they thought they were voting for Wade Boggs. Either way, some of the voters are offensively stupid.

Other thoughts…I watched Faith Rewarded, the story of the 2004 Red Sox and expected a gem of a video yearbook as I had heard a lot of good things. It was mediocre and although I am biased, it does not stand up against The 1986 Mets: A Year to Remember, the prototype against which all championship videos should be measured. Not only does it give great breakdown of the season, it captures the personality of the Mets, something that Faith Rewarded fails to do while taking itself way too seriously. If any of you Mets fans have never seen A Year to Remember, try and dig up a copy, it is worth checking out. Although the $50 asking price on Amazon is steep, here is what a random viewer wroter, “Hell, I hate the Mets...actually I can't stand them. But, this is the greatest baseball season video ever, leading up to the world series. The production of this video is uncomparable. It changed my life, and will definitley change yours.” Who cares if the guy can’t spell definitely? The tape rocks, and McDowell teaches you how to make a hot foot…My original prediction is starting to look good again, Beltran to the Mets is looking like more and more of a possibility. One thing is for sure. If the deal happens, very few balls will be dropping in right center...Links will be back up soon.

Technical Difficulties

2005-01-02T11:51:00.000-05:00

I am experiencing some technical difficulties so the links are out of commission for a few days. Once I am a little less busy, I will get those fixed. Things are about to get interesting in Metland.

Lastings Impression

2004-12-30T16:50:00.000-05:00

In these slow times of the Hot Stove season, it is wonderful when new topics sprout up to talk about. So today I’d like to thank Baseball America for releasing their Top 10 Mets prospects and for J.J. Cooper, the man who wrote it, for doing a marathon chat about their farm system. For those who missed it, here is the Top 10.

Lastings Milledge, CF
Yusmeiro Petit, RHP
Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Ian Bladergroen, 1B
Ambiorix Concepcion, RF
Alay Soler, RHP
Shawn Bowman, 3B
Victor Diaz, OF
Jesus Flores, C
Matt Lindstrom, RHP

No major surprises here, but I expected Petit to be top dog and Milledge #2. Baseball America focuses a lot on tools and upside with less emphasis on performance so that would explain it. Petit has been dominant at every level but there are still questions about hit stuff while Milledge struggled at St. Lucie, he is seen as a potential superstar. It will be interesting to see if Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels have them in the same order. What surprised me most in the chat was when someone asked Cooper to compare Milledge to the Devil Rays’ Delmon Young and he said the following:

That was an interesting discussion around the office all year. Milledge is a better athlete, and unlike Delmon, he doesn't have any tool that projects as below average (there is some concern that as Delmon ages he may gain weight to the point where he's a below average runner), but Delmon has two tools--raw power and arm that most scouts rate as 70 or plus on the scouting scale, which means he has the chance to be a home run champ who is a very solid right fielder.

Young had seemed to me like one of the top 5 prospects in the game and I had never dreamed of comparing the two, but once it was broached in the chat I looked up their stats and they are quite comparable. They both played the bulk of their seasons in the Sally league and had the following lines:

Milledge: .337/.399/.579, 13 HR, 17 BB, 261 AB
Young: .320/.386/.536, 25 HR, 53 BB, 513 AB

Milledge actually outperformed Young on sheer numbers although I don’t know the park effects of Charleston and Capital City offhand. Young has more plate discipline which projects well for him and as Cooper says, scouts see him as having more power; however, I think I had always shortchanged Milledege in my mind and Cooper went on to classify him as one of the 10 or 15 best prospects in baseball. Beltran who?

The other player I found most intriguing on this list is catcher Jesus Flores. Admittedly, I know little about him and had heard a lot more about Joe Hietpas and Aaron Hathaway, two farmhands aspiring to have Tom Prince’s career. While he is only 20 and it is only the Gulf Coast league, his line of .319/.368/.532 is intriguing enough that he will certainly be someone to keep an eye on in the next year as another performance like that could launch him into the realm of elite prospects.

Another interesting tidbit from the top 10 list is that Ambiorix Concepcion was caught in the Domincan visa crack down a couple of years back. Apparently, he used to be known as Robert Solano, but his age remained the same. I had heard rumors he might be older than his listed age of 21 and this might be where that belief comes from. If he is any older, he is certainly no longer a great prospect; however, going from Robert to Ambiorix is a stroke of genius.

After seeing the top 10 and reading the chat, the consensus of the Mets farm system seems to be that they have a lot of great talent, but most of that is at the lower levels and do not have anyone close to making an impact in the majors. If they see some development though, they could have a farm system that is considered elite by 2006. Then again, they will probably trade away the best prospects anyway before they get to Shea so there is no use in getting too attached. Happy New Year!

Beltrance

2004-12-29T15:24:00.000-05:00

Things remain quiet in Metsville these days as 2005 approaches. We wait with bated breath, wondering what the next move will be to catapult the Mets into the ranks of baseball’s elite. Although I predicted the Mets would sign Carlos Beltran, Buster Olney (who is more of an insider than I) indicated on SportsCenter last night that Beltran is Bronx bound. Not too surprising although I can still see Omar blowing the doors off of Boras with an insane offer. As this relates to the Mets, this is not terrible news. As it relates to baseball, this would be disheartening. You don’t blame the Yankees for spending the money they have to win. They aren’t breaking any rules nor did they create the system. In fact, when the current collective bargaining agreement came to a vote in 2002, the Yankees were the only team that voted against it. The pay their outlandish luxury tax and go about their business.

I am also not of the belief that you need money to compete. The A’s and Twins have proven this not to be true as front office intelligence and fantastic player development trump cash every time. Just ask the Mets. As a baseball fan though, seeing Beltran go to the Yankees is boring. It’s like Bill Gates finding a twenty on the street. Recently, the Yankees seem to lure players with the mantra of, “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” as evidenced by Mussina, Sheffield and Giambi choosing the pinstripes when similar money was available elsewhere. They are on the verge of adding Randy Johnson and could also bring Beltran in. They were already a 100 win team without these two, so 110 should be easily attainable; however, as I’ve preached before, there is no guarantee to postseason success and no matter how much you spend, you can’t guarantee a title.

The Mets interest in Beltran seems far more about public relations than practicality. It has been written and said more than once this week, “with Cameron out for a month, the Mets need a centerfielder.” This is hogwash. If David Wright were out for a month, would the Mets have signed Adrian Beltre? Obviously not. We need not make excuses for signing Beltran. Mets fans want him because of how good he looked in the postseason. Reason #237 why Beltran is overrated: His career high OPS is .927, Vlad Guerrero’s was .989 last season and has had no lower than .943 since 1998 and is a year older. Yes, Beltran is entering his “prime,” but maybe he isn’t going to get better. If he is putting up .280/.370/.550 for six years, he is not worth the figures being discussed regarding him. Vlad had injury issues, but when healthy he is a superior player yet got a $70 million dollar deal. Remember, the Mets have a good centerfielder and a good centerfield prospect in Lastings Milledge. If the Mets are determined to sign one more free agent, Delgado and Magglio Ordonez make far more sense because they play positions at which the Mets have an actual void, and they will come a lot cheaper. Beltran would make the Mets better, but just because he would does not mean he is a prudent investment.

I apologize for continually writing about the negatives attached to Beltran, but I feel like I am the only dissenting opinion out there. I am not adamantly opposed to signing him, I just don’t think it is as beneficial as others do. I have an open mind about it though, and could be convinced otherwise. All off the field reasons aside and speaking strictly from a practical baseball standpoint, why should the Mets sign Beltran?

Power to the People

2004-12-27T11:05:00.000-05:00

There is nothing like some grassroots activism, and one ambitious Mets fan is heeding those words as he or she has started an online petition asking Omar Minaya to sign Carlos Beltran. I am too young to remember the 1960s as I was born in the 1970s, but after sigining the petition now I know what it must've been like. Power to the people! Sign Beltran!

It does appear as though the Mets are becoming major players in the race for Beltran. Now that they have announced their intentions, the Mets have to worry about both Beltran the player, and the back page. From now until he signs, with the exception of the Jets playoff collapse and the Knicks blowing a 20 point lead to the Clippers, Beltran will get more than his fair share of attention on the old back pages. I foresee Beltran reaping the benefits of New York city politics as the Mets look to re-establish themselves as "players," and the Yankees doing everything possible to prevent Beltran from signing in Flushing. Scott Boras will be swimming in gold like Scrooge McDuck.

I am a little tired of writing about Carlos Beltran over and over again. I really don't know what else to say as anyone who has read this blog knows how I feel about him. I am starting to believe that Beltran is going to end up on the Mets as Omar is determined to do everything to separate himself from his predecessors, Duquette and Phillips, who are most remembered for not making deals for Vlad and Guerrero. Omar will do whatever it takes, and I'd imagine that means milking the Wilpons for all of their pennies. Much like Pedro, they are going to have to pay a lot more than anyone else to get him. Based on gut and nothing else which is usually not the way I like to do things, Beltran will end up on the Mets for six-years $114 million. You heard it here first folks.

Mohr, Mohr, Mohr

2004-12-23T18:04:00.000-05:00

Mets fan can breathe easy and rejoice, as Moises Alou has signed with the Giants so he can play for his daddy. Brian Sabean has developed a reputation for being one of the shrewder GMs around, able to consistently put together contenders with a mid-level payroll. Folks, it’s all Bonds. He has gotten so good that is almost doesn’t matter who else is on the team, they are going to compete. Sabean has made some head scratcher moves over the last few seasons, but he is outdoing himself this off-season. Omar Vizquel and Mike Matheny for three years? Alou for two years at $13.25 million? These are terrible moves, but will be masked by Bonds’ greatness and they will once again compete and Sabean’s rep will grow. Remember how Jerry Krause used to be considered a basketball genius, and then Jordan retired and he became a dud? The same thing is going to happen to Sabean.

With Alou going to the city by the bay, the pool of potential Mets is dwindling. Reports are that the Mets are going to be “players” in the Beltran sweepstakes. At this point it seems likely that Beltran, Delgado or Ordonez will end up on the Mets. Omar just needs to make sure he gets the player he wants without grossly overpaying. I fear him missing out on Beltran and Delgado and then being so desperate to do something, he hands Ordonez an asinine contract. While the Mets have a competent CF in Cameron, Beltran is about as sure of a thing free agent that has ever come along. Yes he will cost a lot, but unlike any other option, we can be very confident that he will be fantastic for the life of the deal. The Mets announcing their involvement is great news for Scott Boras, as this will only drive up the price.

If the Mets get Beltran, I am assuming he stays in center and Cameron goes to right. Do you think they would just have Floyd basically stand on the left field line while the other two take 75% of the outfield? Speaking of Floyd, I have been down on him like most fans, but I am starting to think that he is getting a bit of a raw deal. I know he has a bad contract, but he seems to have been made a scapegoat for the Mets problems, which are numerous. As we all know, his problem is staying on the field and if the Mets could get 500 AB from this guy, he would be a solid corner OF. The problem is that Mets expected him to be an elite LF when they signed him, but he has never been that with a career high OPS of .968. It is not his fault the Mets overpaid for him. Instead of jettisoning Floyd, they should be looking to add some depth to the outfield instead of signing guys like Ron Calloway. They could start with Dustan Mohr who Metsmerized addict Bernard Gilkey pointed out was non-tendered. Having Mohr would be fantastic insurance for Cameron being out as well as any potential Floyd foibles. His 2004 line of .274/.394/.437 is nice and I can’t believe the Giants got rid of him. They might not get that from Moises Alou. Omar, what are you waiting for?

Snakes Might Bite on Pretty Boy Floyd

2004-12-21T17:37:00.000-05:00

Things have grinded to a halt in terms of the big-ticket moves for the Mets, so the blogging community is left with little to talk about except for the Mets non-tendering Scott Strickland and Orber Moreno. Both of these seem odd, particularly for Moreno who in 33 games posted a 3.38 ERA with a solid K/9 of 7.53. Strickland makes more sense in that he has missed a lot of time over the past two seasons and the Mets don’t want to waste any more time with him. That being said, the Mets could still sign both of these guys at lower rates. Omar referring to Strickland as “Rod” does not bode well for Scott’s potential return.

The question now is how Omar is going to fill out the pen, assuming Strickland and Moreno are out of the picture. This probably means big things for Heath Bell who in limited duty struck out 9.99 per nine. This guy has a funky delivery and if he maintains that K-rate, will get a lot of the set-up innings in 2005. I’m guessing they are also expecting contributions from Mike DeJean, Pedro Feliciano, Felix Heredia and of course Braden Looper. Will Bartolome Fortunato be in the mix? Like Bell, he has a nice K-rate, but walks more guys than me in little league. Tyler Yates was an equal opportunity pitcher last season, yielding runs frequently as a starter and as a reliever. I guess Peterson didn’t “see anything” in him. Who knows if the Mets will give this guy another opportunity. The bullpen jobs, like the bench jobs, are often the last to be filled in the spring. Stay tuned.

The big news of the day is that Mike Cameron had wrist surgery and will likely begin the season on the disabled list. This is an unfortunate turn of events for the Mets as Cameron was the Mets best player last season for start to finish. His defense, according to Clay Davenport’s numbers at Baseball Prospectus, was a little down (20 runs above replacement as opposed to 41 in 2003), but he made up for that by hitting 30 bombs. He will be missed, but the speculation is that this will be Omar’s excuse for stepping up the pressure on Carlos Beltran. This doesn’t make much sense as they will still have two CFs when Cameron comes back anyway, and the word is he will be back early on. Then again, Reyes was supposed to be back early on last season. Either Omar is going to make a run at Beltran or not, Cameron’s injury should have nothing to do with it.

The only intriguing rumor du jour had the Mets offering Cliff Floyd to the D-Backs straight up for Shea Hillenbrand. I guess the Diamonbacks figured, why not go a little further into debt? Or maybe they wanted the hitting version Russ Ortiz? Maybe the Mets think that they need to have someone named Shea on the team. The NY Post would certainly have a field day with this. Whatever the reason is, I think this would be a solid deal for the Mets, assuming they didn’t pay a dime. Floyd is the superior hitter, but is a lot more expensive than Hillenbrand whose only real asset is his ability to hit lefties. Or at least I thought so. In 2004 he was much better versus lefties (.892 OPS vs. 791 vs. righties) but for his career, he actually has a higher OPS versus righties (.773 vs. .763). This pretty much makes him useless because the Mets need a little more than that from first. Than again, he has been better against lefties the last two seasons, so he could potentially for a decent platoon with my boy Eric Valent if his splits the last two seasons are any indication. The only reason to do this deal is if the Mets subsequently make sure to get an OF with some pop.

What do other Mets fans think of this deal? Even if it doesn't happen, I would love to hear if people think it is of sound philosophy.

Firing Bullets

2004-12-20T15:57:00.000-05:00

The hot stove has cooled off a bit as the market seems to be waiting for Carlos Beltran. With not much Mets news, I figured I'd take a stroll around the league.

Moises Alou got in a car accident, but appears to be okay. For those opposed to the Mets signing him, I guess the fact that he is uninjured is bad news. Apparently, he is seeking $6 million per year. As Dick Vitale would say, "are you serioues?!?!?!?!?" Sure Urine-hands hit 39 bombs last season with a line of .293/.361/.557; however, at home it was .338/.405/.714 with 29 homers in 301 AB, on the road it was .247/.316/.400 with 10 jacks in 300 AB. Wrigley was the fifth best hitters park in the majors last season. Do GMs not pay attention to this stuff?
Placido Polanco accepted arbitration. He could've been a good bargain for a team seeking a second baseman, he rates extremely well in defensive stats and is undervalued. It will be interesting to see what he gets in arbitration.
Jose Valentin signed with the Dodgers. He rates off the charts in UZR, the best SS in the league over the last few years in fact. It is no shocker that he signed with one of the more sabermetric savvy organizations. He makes a lot of errors so he has a bad defensive rep, yet all other stats say he is Hoover at SS. As far as defense goes, he the bizarro-Jeter. He will probably play some short and third for the Dodgers and is one of the more intriguing players in my mind based on the disagreement over his defensive value.
I will admit I am a Billy Beane groupie, but I thought he got great return for Mulder and Hudson, particularly Mulder. Hudson had an ERA of 3.53 last season with a K/9 of only 4.91. Mulder collapsed down the stretch due to a hip injury and finished with an ERA of 4.43. Why is he seen as a sure thing? How serioues is his hip injury? Beane would certainly know best. Also, He has never posted an ERA below 3.13 and has a career ERA of 3.92 and career K/9 of 5.58. Sure, it is the AL, but the A's play in an excellent pitchers park. Hudson has a much better track record, better ERA, better K/9 and better K/BB, yet seems to have yielded a lot less. I don't get it. Schuerholz did a lot better than Jocketty.
Apparently, Pedro has some nice perks in his new deal. A suite at Shea for home games and a hotel suite on the road. Do you think he gets a case of Soul Glo for each start? Darryl Jenks lives in Queens, maybe he can get Pedro an endorsement deal.

The Mystery of Beltran

2004-12-17T13:08:00.000-05:00

Now that Pedro is on board, the rumor mill is really starting to churn. Newsday is reporting the Mets are again interested in Carlos Beltran and based on comments being posted on other blogs, Mets fan are collectively wetting themselves. I understand why everyone is so excited about Beltran, he is young, injury free and is a seven tool player. But if you look at what the market seems to be for Beltran versus other players, I am having a difficult time understanding why he is valued so much more than others. Look at the following example:

2004
Player A: .305/.436/.569 and 31 HR
Player B: .267/.367/.548 and 38 HR

Career
Player A: 742 Games, .287/.391/.513 and 127 HR
Player B: 885 Games, .284/.353/.490 and 146 HR

These players are both free agents and both represented by Scott Boras. Can you guess who they are? Give up? Player A is J.D. Drew, and Player B is Carlos Beltran. It makes one wonder why Beltran is getting so much more attention than Drew. The obvious reasons are that Beltran is younger (about a year and a half), plays CF, has never been injured and also steals bases at an amazing rate (192 for 215 for his career). Beyond those numbers though, Drew is a more accomplished hitter who tops Beltran in each of the three major rate stats last season and for his career. If you use EQA, a metric that accounts for stolen bases and caught stealing, Drew posted a .335 last season and Beltran a .306. Yet a quick look at the ESPN Rumor Mill says the Astros have offered Beltran 5-years for $70 million (and he is expected to get more than that) while Drew is seeking 5-years for $50 million. I smell a bargain.

Obviously, Drew has downside in that he has missed a lot of games over the course of his career due to knee problems and that is part of what drives his value down. While some may point to 2004 being a “contract year” for Drew, but if you look at his career, when he has been on the field, he has performed well. Conversely, Beltran playing the best ball of his career during the playoffs has driven up his value. Remember, he is not as good as he played in October, nor is he some type of special clutch player because he did.

Another factor is that while Beltran is a centerfielder, the Mets don’t need a centerfielder as they have Mike Cameron who generates a lot of his value from his defensive ability. Drew has played mostly right field for the Braves so he does fill a Mets need although some reports have suggested that he might be best served switching to center, which he has played in his career, because there are fewer quick stops in center which would save some stress on his knees.

All of this is not saying I believe the Mets should go out and sign J.D. Drew, but if they are interested in Beltran, they should be interested in Drew as well because he seems like a better bargain. It is possible that Omar is trying to make the Mets a team filled with Latin players as a way of appealing to the large Latin community in NYC as well as making the Mets a draw for other Latin players. If that is his goal, Beltran obviously makes more sense because J.D. does not stand for Jose Diaz. Ethnicities aside, Drew is a better hitter and his perceived value is low. Sexson got four-years $50 million for chrissakes, not only is Drew better than him, but he is not coming off a major injury with major question marks. Drew is going to be the steal of the year.

Let the Insanity Begin

2004-12-16T13:53:00.000-05:00

Like it or not, Pedro is coming to the Mets. The press conference took place this morning and if it is an indicator of things to come, the upcoming season will certainly be entertaining. It was a zoo at Shea as Omar hooged the mic, the media fired question, and Pedro smiled like a man who just signed a contract for millions of dollars. All speculation about the health of Pedro’s arm aside, the Mets are shaping up to have a very strong rotation. They all have question marks, but I’ll break down the rotation 1-5.

Pedro Martinez-The doubts surrounding his health have been well documented so it is not worth going into too much depth. If healthy, he is going to be nasty and his ERA is going to look mighty nice at Shea. There are a lot of Red Sox and Yankees fans talking about how foolish this move is for the Mets. I have outlined my questions before, and the Mets need to make sure they can get extra rest for Pedro when possible. He has proven to be far better on more than four days rest so getting some spot starts from a long reliever could go a long way towards maximizing Pedro's effectiveness. There has been a lot of criticism about this move and there are legitimate concerns. But for other fans, particularly Red Sox fans, to be ridiculing this move and snickering about how Pedro is a ticking time bomb, they should stop drinking their Haterade. The Sox and Yanks both pursued this guy and didn't get him. As I've said before, if his arm is in such bad shape, the Red Sox would know better than anyone yet they were offering him a lot of money as well.

Tom Glavine-Looked great for the first half of 2004 but fell off in the second half as he posted an ERA of 5.06 after the break. This can be attributed to higher walk and HR rates. In September alone, he allowed 9 homers. Glavine ended the season with an ERA of 3.60, which I would be pleased to get from him again. A little more consistency would be nice though. He needs to pitch 200 innings this season for his 2006 option to kick in, so it will be interesting to see how the Mets use him, particularly if they are out of the race.

Steve Trachsel-There are a lot of mixed feelings out there about Trachsel as a pitcher, but when it comes down to it, he has been excellent for the Mets. His ERA over the last three seasons is 3.73 in 581.0 IP. You would like to see him pitching more than 200 innings per year, but you can’t argue with his performance when he is on the mound. It is somewhat difficult to understand how he does it because his career K/9 is 6.06 and his career K/BB is 1.89 while giving up 26 homers per season. I guess he just lulls the hitters to sleep somewhat time-consuming ritual between pitches.

Kris Benson-The former #1 overall pick has never quite lived up to the expectations that come with being that selection. Then again, neither has Paul Wilson. Now that the Mets have locked him up for the next three seasons, it is up to Rick “I think I see something in him” Peterson to get something out of this guy who obviously has talent. He has had his share of arm problems, so keeping him healthy (as with all pitchers really) is the primary concern. Looking at his peripherals, his biggest problem seems to be lack of Ks. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground (1.29 career groundball/flyball) so he needs to miss more bats as batters have hit .266 against him for his career. His best year, 2000, his K/9 was 7.61 but every other year it has been no higher than 6.75 and only 6.02 last season. He needs to find a way to get back to his 2000 form.

Victor Zambrano-Forever to be remembered in Mets lore as the man acquired for Scott Kazmir. In fact, he should consider legally changing his name to, “Victor Zambrano, acquired for top prospect Scott Kazmir.” We have him, so it’s time to move past Kazmir and live with him. Say what you want, he is an intriguing talent. He came up as a shortstop but converted to pitcher and has amazing natural movement on his pitches, just not much control of them. Enter Rick “black windbreaker in the dead of summer” Peterson. The question is whether or not Victor Zambrano can cut down on his walks while maintaining his ability to make hitters swing and miss. I have confidence that Peterson can turn him into an effective pitcher and he will be the most exciting Mets’ pitcher to watch this season, besides Pedro Martinez.

Other thoughts…Apparently, the Mets get a supplemental first round pick for their failure to sign Phillip Humber. They’ll need it as they will lose a first round pick for signing Pedro Martinez. If you get an extra first rounder for not signing your first rounder, why don’t teams say to their picks, “We want to sign you, but let’s wait until after the deadline for us to get an extra pick?” I don’t fully understand how this works. If someone could explain it to me, I would appreciate it.

I Got a Fever, And The Only Prescription...Is More Pedro!

2004-12-15T17:10:00.000-05:00

Mets fans wait with baited breath for the results of Pedro’s MRI. Wondering if it will reveal anything that could be a deal-breaker. As someone who knows little of things, I was pleased to see that injury-guru Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus weighed in on the topic today.

Is there a labrum tear there? Possibly, but no MRI is going to give a significant degree of confidence. There is only one way to diagnose a labrum tear: arthroscopic surgery. MRIs of this nature are notoriously difficult to read…The question becomes whether or not that damage is symptomatic. Is there clicking, popping, catching or pain in Pedro Martinez's shoulder? Only Martinez himself knows the answer. Asymptomatic pitchers can certainly have some success while being ticking time bombs. Martinez has shown himself to be an effective pitcher over the past couple seasons.

While it’s amusing to read each New York’s manifesto as to whether or not the Pedro deal is good for the Mets, I’m glad Mr. Carroll is around because unlike every other writer, he has some idea of what he is talking about when it comes to injuries.

That being said, his insight does not convince me one way or the other on if this is a good move or not. Unlike most Mets’ fans and writers, I do not have a strong opinion either way on the subject. When it comes down to it, I am always an optimist when it comes to Mets transactions. Even if the smart baseball fan in me recognizes the stupidity of certain moves, I still thought, “If all breaks right, maybe Scott Erickson can recapture his 1991 form!” In this case my thought is, “Pedro will take down the NL like Don Zimmer!” For the first two seasons, I feel confident that this will be the case. As for years three and four, I am not nearly as confident but then again, it is not our money.

One luxury the Mets have is that a lot of their big contracts will be coming to an end over the next two seasons. Past 2006, they are only on the hook for $5.5 million, and they have some prospects that could potentially step in when those contracts expire. When Pedro signs, that would bring the guaranteed money up to about $19 million for 2007 depending on who you believe as to the value of Pedro’s contract. Granted, that is only for a couple of roster spots, but it gives the Mets plenty of room to work with when you consider that Wright and Reyes will still be a couple of years away from free agency and hopefully Yusmeiro Petit and Phillip Humber will be anchoring the rotation.

As for other Mets acquisitions, Omar seems to be entering the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes. Unfortunately, with Richie Sexson on the verge of signing an absurd four-year $48 million contract, Delgado is now demanding four-years which, like Pedro, is a year more than he deserves. Unlike Pedro, the Mets are not bidding against a team he wants to stay with so it is possible he could be had for three-years. As reader Bernard Gilkey points out, Josh Phelps has been designated for assignment and the Indians have 10 days to trade, release or put him on waivers. He could provide a low risk/high reward solution at first. The guy has power (career IsoP of .211) and is worth taking a flyer on if their other first base dreams don’t pan out. As I’ve pointed out before, unless they significantly upgrade their offense in the outfield, they need someone offense from first base.

Paid-ro

2004-12-14T14:34:00.000-05:00

When the Mets would be involved in crazy rumors or make awful transactions, I used to get mad. I would get a Mets fan friend on the phone and rail on the move and say, “what the %&*# were they thinking?” Now, I just laugh. Really, what else can you do? While the Mets may not provide the best entertainment on the field, the certainly provide some of the best off of it. How else can you explain their insane pursuit of Pedro Martinez?

After it seeming like Pedro was just using the Mets to up the offer from the Red Sox, now it appears as though he was using the Mets to get the Sox to up their offer to get the Mets to up their offer. It worked. All signs indicate Petey is bound for Flushing with a four-year contract in the $52 million range. This is on the heels of a rumor that the Mets were discussing sending Cliff Floyd and prospectus to the Sox in exchange for Manny Ramirez and Doug Mientkiewicz. If Omar’s goal was to make a proverbial splash, he is John Goodman doing a cannonball in a kiddie pool.

As I noted in a previous post, barring major injury Pedro should be an effective top of the rotation starter for the next three years. That statement; however, has two major qualifications; three years and major injury. As we know, he contract is for four years and as Jayson Stark is reporting, Pedro’s has what some believe to be a 90% labrum tear. The contract is worrisome, but for Omar to lure Pedro from Boston, he had to offer him something that Boston wouldn’t, a fourth guaranteed year. As for the labrum, I have no idea but if he does have a large labrum tear, wouldn’t Boston know and if they did, why would they offer him a penny? Supposedly the Mets want Pedro to have an MRI as part of his physical but he is hesitant. Shocking. Whether or not he has a labrum tear remains to be seen, but if you are a pitcher who is about to sign a major guaranteed contract, the less they know about your arm the better. Whether or not the MRI happens is something we should keep a close eye on.

The thought of Pedro in a Mets uniform is exciting and I would certainly make a point to watch his first few starts; as for the future of the organization, there were smarter moves. For example, the Mets would be better off signing Matt Clement or Odalis Perez for about $20 million less. Not only are they good bets to be as good as Pedro over the next four years, they are better bets to stay healthy. That is my ongoing problem with the Mets’ management, they make moves that are not about baseball. Will Pedro sell a few extra tickets? Yes. Will he make them a better bet to reach the playoffs over each of the next four seasons? No. In the spectrum of potential Mets’ moves this offseason, the Pedro acquisition is not the worst move they could’ve made, but it is certainly not the best. Let’s just hope that Nelson De La Rosa is included in the deal.

Other thoughts…The rumored Manny deal is not worth it. When I read the Mets would be sending “Cliff Floyd and prospects” for Manny and Minky, I cringed. Manny is my favorite player in baseball, but this is business and the Mets should hold on to their top prospects, they actually have some good ones even after this summer’s debacle…Moises Alou, bleech. If it’s one year, it isn’t terrible, but I don’t see a benefit to it…I got very excited when I heard Richie Sexson was headed to Seattle but it isn’t official yet, let’s keep our fingers crossed...No Mets were taken in the Rule 5 draft, I am not sure if this is good news or bad news.

More Sexin'! I mean Sexson.

2004-12-09T13:38:00.000-05:00

Rumors are a-flying that Richie Sexson is the apple of Omar’s eye. As I discussed yesterday, I think this is a bad idea. All things being equal, Delgado is the superior player. When you consider that Delgado is not coming off a major injury and was not offered arbitration, it tilts the scale even more in his favor. Sexson is younger, but he is not “young” and old enough that we know he is not going to get significantly better. I could go into greater depth of the statistical discrepancy of these two players, but I don’t even think it is worth it. It would probably just make me angrier about this and force me to put my fist through my monitor. Go to their player pages on ESPN.com and see for yourself.

Richie Sexson
Carlos Delgado

I do not understand any argument that favors Sexson over Delgado. In fact, I believe Sexson is such a risk that I would prefer the Mets sign neither than sign Sexson for the type of money he is commanding. Based on what Troy Glaus is getting from Arizona (4-years, $45 million) it is safe to assume that Sexson will get similar dollars. When you consider the questions surrounding his injury, I’d say pass. As I’ve noted before, this is an injury similar to the one Shawn Green had, and he has not been the same player since. Why would the Mets consider giving big money to such a high-risk player? Just because they got burned by not signing Vladimir Guerrero does not mean that Sexson will work out. Also, based on his injury history there is now way the Sexson contract would be insurable a la Mo Vaughn.

My hope is that the Mets are throwing up a smoke screen to hide their true agenda. While I disagree with the Yankees signings of Womack and Wright, they did a good job of hiding their interest in each player as we never really heard them rumored to be going to the Yanks, and the Mets could learn from that. Maybe Cashman can teach a seminar?

I’ll be gone for a few days but will be back next week with commentary on the winter meetings. Here’s to not screwing up!

I've Got a New Drug

2004-12-08T13:32:00.000-05:00

As I opened up my browser this morning, I had no idea what I was in store for. While I have never taken any intravenous drugs, I can imagine the feeling now as much to my surprise and excitement, there has already been a lot of action in the wake of the arbitration offering deadline. I don’t really know how to handle it all, so pardon me if some of my thoughts are incoherent.

If the Mets needed another reason to go after Carlos Delgado over Richie Sexson, they got it when Sexson was offered arbitration and Delgado was not. The Mets can now make a hard run at Carlos without having to worry about giving up draft pick compensation. For those who think draft pick compensation is overrated, remember that the Mets drafted David Wright with a compensation pick they got from Colorado when they signed Mike Hampton. While Sexson is younger, he will demand more money and possibly a longer contract as a result when he is only two years younger and is coming off an injury that we don’t know how he is going recover from. Delgado is much more of a sure thing, we know what to expect and it is excellent. He is 32 and if the Mets can get him for a three-year contract, they can be confident will be productive for the life of the contract.

As for Sexson, his career line of .271/.349/.528 is nice, but there was no discernible upward trend before he got injured which leads us to believe that at best, that is what we can expect. His highest OPS season was 2003 (.927) but even then, his VORP (Value Over Replacement Level, as determined by Baseball Prospectus) was 51.0, about 5 wins while Delgado’s was 66.6 wins that season, closer to 7 wins. The point is, that even at his best, Sexson is not as good as Delgado offensively. Defensively, Sexson has the better rep, but UZR has Delgado rated –2 from 2000-2003 and Sexson a –3 while Prospectus’ Runs Above Replacement (RAR) gives Sexson a 97 to 50 advantage for their career. These can guys can both rake, but neither of them are going to make us forget Keith Hernandez with the cowhide.

Speaking of defense, there is also talk about the Mets trying to acquire Doug Mientkiewicz based on his defense. This is nonsense. His defensive reputation has been completely inflated based on being part of the Red Sox championship late-inning defensive team. He is not worth giving anything up for as he is essentially a zero with the bat, at least for a first baseman. The Mets need offense from first base as they ranked 12th in the NL in runs scored last year (8th in runs allowed) and got little from a position most teams get a lot from. They would be better off with a Valent/Phillips platoon at first, which wouldn’t be terrible because Valent would get the majority of the ABs due to the fact there are more righties out there and could hold his own based on his .836 OPS against righties last season. I realize it is only one season, but his discerning eye leads me to believe he can maintain it. I shouldn’t worry too much as Mientkiewicz is a gringo and Omar does not seem interested in acquiring any of those. Then again, neither Delgado or Sexson is Dominican so we could have a problem there. Delgado is hispanic so he is closer, but he is Puerto Rican and as anyone from Washington Heights knows (I grew up in Washington Heights), Puerto Ricans and Dominicans don't like eachother. So who knows?

Another element in the equation is that Delgado is a left-handed hitter. This should not be a major factor, but should be considered since the Mets lack a lefty with significant power. Delgado also took a stand against standing for “God Bless America,” which I fully support.

At the risk of sounding repetitive, I will stick with what I learned from the Bush campaign and stay on message. Sexson is a high risk signing (as is Magglio Ordonez for that matter), and these are not players the Mets should be making large investments in right now. If the Mets are going to make a point to sign acquire a new first baseman, and it seems like they are, the best option is Carlos Delgado unless he asks for the moon and the sky. In that case, the Mets can tell him to “God Bless deez nuts.”

Other thoughts…Moises Alou to the Mets? I’ll take “Omar’s obsession with Dominican players for $500, Alex.” I can’t root for anyone who has peed on more skin than R. Kelly. Not to mention the fact that he is 80…I don’t know what the Yanks are thinking with the Womack and Wright signings. Womack is thought of as a lead-off hitter, but his career OBP is .319. He will have the worst OBP on the Yankees yet getting the most PAs. I hope those 25 SB are worth it. Signing two guys coming off their best years who both have major question marks is not good business. It seems like Steinbrenner is running the ship again. I can enjoy this until the Mets start their stupidity…Leiter back to the Fish, good luck Al. We’ll miss you, but not your clubhouse politicking or your 50 pitch innings.

You Like a The Juice?

2004-12-06T15:53:00.000-05:00

I don't know about you guys, but I have been looking forward to Dec. 7th for weeks. After midnight tomorrow, teams can no longer offer arbitration to their free agents so the big name signings will finally happen. I was hoping Al Leiter would sign before tomorrow so the Mets could get some picks, but it looks like it won't happen. The big signings probably won't happen right away, but at least we know it can go down at any time. This has been lost in the shuffle a little bit due to the steroids outrage, so before I get to the Mets first base situation which I will do tomorrow, I figured I'd weight in. Everyone else gets to, why not me? So excuse me while I step on my proverbial soap box.

Based on the average columnist and ESPN polls, everyone seems upset that Giambi and Bonds have essentially admitted to taking steroids and who knows who else did as well. Should there be asterisks? Should there be new standards? The steroids issue never really bothered me. I have always found it odd where we draw our lines over what are acceptable methods of enhancing ones performance. For example, what Curt Schilling did before Game 6 against the Yankees was by no means a natural means of preparing for a game and if you need to take the measures he did to pitch, you probably shouldn't be pitching. When guys have to shoot up cortisone and various horse tranquilizers to play, that doesn't seem right to me yet when they do it, they are lauded as heroes and warriors.

Another issues I have always had is that it is possible to bulk up without Vitamin S. Baseball players used to never lift weights because they thought it ruined their swing. Yet in the early 90's, players started bulking up. Is this where steroids came in? Was it inevitable? I guess, but if you never lifted weights and then became a weightlifting fiend for 10 years, wouldn't you get a lot bigger? This is the argument I used to use to defend Barry Bonds. That argument seems weak now because Bonds has essentially admitted he used steroids albeit unknowingly. Beyond Bonds, it applies to other players suspected of juicing because it is possible to get a lot bigger the old fashioned way, by lifting weights.

Lastly, what about pitchers? Isn't Roger Clemens as likely a steroid candidate as anyone else based on his age, size and performance? No one talks about it, but if there are as many pitchers as hitters juicing as hitters, doesn't that level out the playing field to some degree?

I tend to assume that there are a lot more players juicing than we think. There is not that much known about the side effects of steroids but they don't seem healthy. If players want to risk their health, it is not going to change my enjoyment of the game. I would prefer if the players didn't, but I am not going to get high and mighty about the sanctity of the game when every era had it's issues. Babe Ruth set his records without having to compete agains black and Latin American players. The old days are romanticized for pitchers who threw spitballs and various illegal pitches, yet that is seen as part of the charm of the history of the game even though they are illegal.

You can find flaws in any era and the records and the game are not as pure as the average scribe would have you believe.

Jose, No Way!

2004-12-02T19:47:00.000-05:00

For those who were wondering, Jose Reyes is playing in the Dominican Winter league. Here is a note from Fox Sports.

Wed Dec 1 2004 - Jose Reyes had three more hits yesterday and is now batting .362 in the Dominican Winter League. Reyes also has five extra-base hits, five walks and no torn hamstrings in 52 at-bats.

Great news Mets fans! Reyes is playing, playing well and even drawing some walks. Now this is the dreaded “small sample,” but it is better than nothing. Here is another note from the same link.

Wed Nov 17 2004 - Jose Reyes homered and singled yesterday for Cibao of the Dominican Winter League. Reyes has decided to play winter ball even though he might be better off continuing to work on his hamstring problems. The Mets don't seem especially concerned one way or the other.

It’s true, the Mets don’t seem too concerned either way and that is frightening. While Omar Minaya is off chasing every player this side of Jason Giambi, a potential franchise cornerstone is off playing in the Dominican Republic when he could be strengthening his hamstring. How does this happen? Why is Reyes not working his ass off to do everything in his power to play a full season? Even if the Mets can’t force him to do it, isn’t it in his best interest to do whatever he can to prevent re-injry so he can become rich and famous? I just don’t get it. He is such a tantalizing talent and he seems destined to never reach his full potential. It sounds like what my 9th grade biology teacher said to me. At least he is playing well in the DR, but watching him is like watching Fred Taylor try and cut on a muddy day, you can’t watch and enjoy, you are just waiting for him to get hurt.

Other thoughts…I don’t know where any of you were today, but you should have been at Sotheby’s. In an auction of “Important Baseball Memorabilia” Ed Kranepool’s 1973 NL Championship ring fetched $9,000 and a 1986 full-sized World Series trophy got $34,500, ten grand above the estimate. Never accuse Mets fans of being cheap! I didn’t know this but they also produce a few full-sized versions of the championship trophy. Supposedly, Kranepool has been selling off a lot of his old mementos. I don’t know if he needs the money or what, but it strikes me as depressing.

Anna and the Bat Boys

2004-12-01T15:05:00.000-05:00

Maybe the Mets overpaid for Kris Benson, you know what, I don’t care. You want to know why? Check out today’s Page Six in the New York Post. Anna appeared on Howard Stern yesterday and for those who listened, you got an amazing treat. Here are some of her gems.

"I told him [Kris] — because that's the biggest thing in athletics, they cheat all the time — I told him, cheat on me all you want. If you get caught, I'm going to screw everybody on your entire team — coaches, trainers, players. I would do everybody on his whole team."

"Even the coaches? What about, like, the bat boys?" Asked Stern.
"Everybody would get a turn," Anna pledged. "If my husband cheated on me and embarrassed me like that, I will embarrass him more than he could ever imagine."

Excuse while I apply for the next available job with the Mets.

Ok, I’m back. Having Anna Benson associated with this team is the best thing that has happened to the Mets since they brought back Mr. Met. You cannot put a price on the type of material that Anna Benson provides. In fact, I think the Mets should put her on the payroll; she should do public appearances for the team. She is somehow leveraging her status as the wife of a mediocre pitcher and turning herself into a C-list celebrity. If she plays her cards right, she could earn a spot on the next season of The Surreal Life with Urkel, Lou Vega and Jessie Spano.

They might lose 90 games again, but with Anna Benson on board, there will never be a shortage of amusing stories.

Other thoughts...The ESPN Rumor Mill has the Yankees offering Javier Vazquez, Tom Gordon, Eric Duncan and $4 million per year for Vazquez’s contract for Randy Johnson. For those who don’t know, Eric Duncan is a 20-year old third baseman who Baseball America just rated the Yankees best prospect. Gordon was arguably the best reliever in baseball last season, are they counting on Steve Karsay and Tanyon Sturtze? Also, Vazquez is not as bad as he pitched in the second half. Does anyone remember he was an All-Star? Yes, this is just a rumor, but if it happens, it is another step in the Yankees downfall.

At some point, they will start losing money and if Steinbrenner has to lose money for the Yankees to win a World Series, that is fine with me because the joke is on him. If he were smart, he could have a chance at the playoffs every year while making a fortunre. Hasn’t he learned anything the last few years? Now matter how good you are or how much you spend, you cannot guarantee post-season success. On top of that, they are getting to the point where they might not even be that good anymore because the keep getting older. The Big Unit trade might be good in the short term, but it hurts them down the road much like the Giambi acquisition.

The Yankees are screwing themselves and if Kris Benson gets lonely on the road, the Mets could be screwing Anna Benson. I think the Mets get the better end of that. Let’s Go Mets!

Omar and The Yankees Son

2004-11-29T14:30:00.000-05:00

After being gone for a week, I figured there would be loads of topics to comment on, but that is not the case as most of the same stories seem to be re-circulating and it is becoming clear that no big signing will happen until after December 7th, the last chance for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. That being said, the one story that seems to be building steam is the Mets pursuit of Pedro Martinez.

Reports indicate that Omar Minaya had dinner with Pedro Martinez the other night in the Dominican Republic and that he could be making an offer soon. While it’s possible that two rich baseball guys wanted to have dinner together, it is fair to assume the Mets have some interest. The Red Sox have apparently offered two-years $25.5 million option with a vesting option for 2007. One has to figure that in order for the Mets to sign him, they would need to guarantee a third year which would make it a three-year deal for roughly $39 million. Is this smart? Let’s look at the numbers.

From 2002-2004 he has combined for an ERA of 2.84 in 603 IP and 674 K. In that time he has allowed only 46 HR while walking only 148. These are fantastic numbers and one might argue that rumors of his downfall are greatly exaggerated; however, looking solely at his 2004 numbers might be cause for concern as he posted the worst ERA of his career. A closer look at his peripherals reveals that while impressive, they were below his career norms. In 2004, his K/9 was 9.42 and K/BB was 3.72 as compared to his career average of 10.4 K/9 and 4.31 K/BB. Those 2004 numbers are obviously below his peak but even his 9.42 K/9 in 2004 was good enough for 7th best in the majors; however, the biggest difference in his peripherals in 2004 was HR allowed. He surrendered 26 bombs last year after allowing only 25 the previous three seasons combined. Pedro has been known to be gopher ball prone in his past as he also allowed 26 in 1998, but the big question to ask is if the 26 in 2004 is indication of his demise?

First of all, any discussion of Pedro’s numbers needs to take his home ballpark into account. While Fenway Park is a great hitters park, it wasn’t the case for Pedro in 2004 as his home ERA was 3.22 and his road ERA was 4.61 and he gave up more homers on the road in fewer innings even though Fenway ranked as the 6th best hitters park in 2004. The best argument for this is that Pedro’s road numbers in 2004 were somewhat of a fluke as was his high ERA in general. In fact, his DIPS ERA (which is designed to measure a pitchers ERA independent of his defense) was 3.64, 13th best in the majors, which is an indication that he got very little help from his defense. It should also be noted that Pedro pitched in the AL, which will obviously inflate ERA.

When discussing free agent pitchers, Martinez is probably the best available. Carl Pavano is getting a lot of attention, but I don’t trust him. He pitched without the DH in the NL, in a weak hitting division and in the fourth best pitchers park in the majors. The opposite is true for Pedro. Unless Pavano goes to another NL pitchers park, I don’t think his 3.00 ERA from 2004 is going to stand up and he won’t look so hot while Pedro’s numbers will certainly improve if he comes to the Mets. Yes, Shea is a pitchers park so Pavano would theoretically stay at his current level, but he does not strike out a lot of guys and his K-rate is in decline. Hypothetically, Pedro for 3-years $39 million versus Pavano 3-years $30 million and I am going with Pedro.

Similar to my stance on Delgado, Pedro for no more than three years is not a bad move. If the Mets are determined to sign a free agent pitcher and “make a splash,” Pedro is a solid choice. If he comes to the Mets, I foresee an ERA below 3.00 with over 200 IP and 220+ Ks. From 1997-2000, Pedro Martinez was about as good as any pitcher ever. The current perception of Pedro is that he is not the same pitcher, and this is true; however, 80% of 1999 Pedro is still an elite pitcher.

Some Bullet Points From the Road...

2004-11-23T11:17:00.000-05:00

Normally I don't condone the use of bullets but I am going skeet shooting for the first time today so I am pretty excited.

The Kris Benson signing is official and while it will be nice to have Anna aboard, this is a waste of some dollars. I was already feeling this sentiment when I read this from Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus.

Other than being a former #1 pick, it's not clear to me how Benson is four million bucks a year better than the class of guys who are out there with two-year deals in the $3 million range, guys like Jeff Suppan, John Thomson, Jason Johnson and Cory Lidle. There's just nothing in his performance record to suggest that he's more than a mid-rotation guy.
Mets fans will likely point to his 51/17 K/BB in two months under Rick Peterson, but it was 11 starts, and the improved control came packaged with a doubled home-run rate. Benson would have to improve to a level he hasn't reached yet to justify this contract. This looks like it will be yet another disappointing free-agent signing by a team that never seems to make the right
choices in the market.
Sheehan is correct. Benson would have to be better than he has ever shown for him to be worth the cash he was paid. For the same money, the Mets could have gotten Brad Radke, or anyone Sheehan suggested for a lot less. This raises the question again of why the Mets bothered trading for him when they could have signed him this offseason without giving up Justin Huber, Matt Peterson or Ty Wigginton? That's right, for their post-season run. Granted, they would have needed to give up draft pick compensation if the had signed him from the Pirates this winter, but that would not have been worth those three players, nor would they have needed to pay him as much because Benson and his agent knew the Mets had to sign him or they would have been giving up those three players for nothing. Give credit to Benson's agent for knowing he had the Mets by the proverbial balls and another poort job by the Mets allowing themselves to be put in that position.
Also from Sheehan's column, "Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to get back to figuring out why Jose Reyes (career: 18 walks, 494 at-bats) shouldn't start 2005 in Triple-A." As I pointed out in a previous post (see: Jose Can You See, the Ball Out of the Strike Zone), Reyes lack of strike zone judgement is cause for major concern among Mets fans. Reyes to Norfolk is not going to happen but it isn't a bad idea. Unfortunately, the Mets have already pushed Reyes forward as part of their "youth movement," although it should be more accurately called, "David Wright and a bunch of mediocre, overpaid veterans."
The NY Times says Delgado's people have contact Minaya, but his evaluators have concerns about his defense. If the Mets are valuing defense, I can accept that. But if they bring in Richie Sexson, I can't.

Petit es Grande, And Other Gringo Mets

2004-11-19T16:41:00.000-05:00

I’m a little worn out from discussing how the Mets might screw up their team, so I thought I’d focus on something positive the Mets have going for them, Yusmeiro Petit.

For those unfamiliar with his work, he is now the Mets best prospect. Petit began the year at Low-A with Capitol City of the South Atlantic (a.k.a. Sally) League. For the record, the Mets have moved their Sally League affiliate from Columbia, SC to Hagerstown, MD. They are now the Hagerstown Suns. In 83.0 IP, Petit posted a 2.39 ERA with 122 K, 22 BB and 8 HR. After this performance, he was promoted to St. Lucie of the Florida State League (High-A) where he was even more dominant. In 44.1 IP his ERA was a Bob Gibson-esque 1.22, with 62 K, 14 BB and zero homers allowed. Mets management, obviously impressed with his performance, moved him up again to let him finish the season at Double-A Binghamton. He only pitched 12 innings there and they were nothing special as the competition caught up with him a little as surrendered 6 ER in those 12 IP; however, he kept the K-rate up as he whiffed 16 while issuing 5 free passes. So for the season, across 3 levels, Petit had the following line: 139.1 IP, 200 K, 41 BB, 8 HR, 2.20 ERA. Petit=Nasty.

The performance at Binghamton was a little disappointing, as it would’ve been nice to see him continue his utter domination. Don’t fret. Any Mets fan worried about his progress should see what he has done thus far in the Venezuelan winter league. Playing for Magallanes B.B.C., which loosely translated means Magallanes Baseball Club, Petit has been brilliant. In 26.1 IP, he as allowed only 3 ER for an ERA of 1.03. He has 27 K and only 3 BB and one round-tripper allowed. From what I gather, this league is roughly equivalent to Double-A, the level at which Petit ended his season so he seems have hopped the Diamond 7 express to Flushing. Petit is barely six feet tall and a little chunky, leaving scouts to wonder how he has been so un-hittable without a dominating fastball, but as we know, scouts do not know all and everywhere he has been so far, he has been lights out.

If you want to see the Venezuelan league stats, click here for pitcher and here for hitters, and the team roster is here. Click on each player’s name for their stats. While my Spanish might be rusty, it is good to know that IP, SO, BB and HR mean the same in every language! EFE is ERA while CL is earned runs and CP unearned runs. The other lines I am not sure of, so feel free to fill me in!

Petit was kind enough to bring some of his gringo teammates down from the Mets farm system to join him with Magallanes and thus far, they have seen mixed results. Pat Strange for one, has been absolutely rocked. 21 ER in 21.2 IP is not the quickest way to Shea. Neal Musser has had a similar crappy experience, but both of these guys got rocked in Triple-A this year, so they are not likely candidates to ever help the Mets. Conversely, Blake McGinley has been sharp for Magallanes, with 18 K in 14 IP and a 1.93 ERA. McGinley was mediocre at Norfolk this year in terms of ERA, but maintained the strong K/BB he had at Binghamton that earned him a promotion. His ERA last year was not impressive (3.81 in 99.1 IP between Norfolk and Binghamton), but his peripherals were strong (111 K, 22 BB) so he is someone to keep an eye on for future bullpen help.

Despite the pillage of July ’04, the Mets farm system still has some elite prospects led by Yusmeiro Petit. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that he will be gone once Cory Lidle becomes available. Until then, we can fantasize about the future rotation of Petit, Humber, Hernandez and Kazmir. No, I’m not bitter.

Free agency thoughts (I couldn’t resist)...While the rumors indicate a Sosa deal could go down any day, Omar has to be smart enough to know there is no rush. He should at least wait until after December 7th to see which free agents were offered arbitration. Magglio Ordonez, for one, will most likely not be offered arbitration because he is waiting until the winter meetings (December 10th) to show GMs his knee is in good shape. Since the Pale Hose will not get a chance to see how the knee looks, they won’t offer him arbitration so the club who signs him will not have to give up draft pick compensation. Even if Omar is dying to make this deal, there is no reason to hurry.

Note: I will be out of town for the next week but I will try and check in when possible. Happy Thanksgiving.

Relatively Hot Stove Report

2004-11-17T16:52:00.000-05:00

Well, the good news so far in the nascent free agent season is that the Mets are no longer the dumbest organization in the NL East. That title now belongs to the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals who gave Vinny Castilla and Christian Guzman, two of the biggest outmakers in baseball, two years $6.2 million and four years $16.8 million respectively. It will be hard for Omar to match the stupidity of his former organization with any of his moves. But based on the rumors, it looks as though he may be trying!

The latest murmurs seem to indicate that Kris Benson will be re-signed before the end of the week. From an aesthetics standpoint, I am sure the Mets brass want to keep a pitcher they gave up a lot for, but it looked for awhile like Omar was going to stand his ground and not budge from his 3-year, $21 million offer which could have forced Benson to look elsewhere. Omar now appears willing to budge a little so 3-years in the $21 million to $24 million range seems likely. If Rick Peterson can get Benson to recapture his 2000 form (217 IP, 3.85 ERA, 184 K, 86 BB, 24 HR) than that contract is reasonable. But then again, that is a big if. Peterson’s reputation has been staked to Benson and Victor Zambrano. If he can coax three years of 200+ IP and ERAs in the 3.50 range out of these guys, he will have shown the Mets he is everything he was cracked up to be.

Sammy Sosa’s name keeps coming up in Mets rumors so it is safe to say that it is still a distinct possibility. If he does waive his option year that kicks in with the trade, and the Mets trade them Cliff Floyd, it isn’t as awful as I once thought. Instead of having my eyes gouged with a melon baller, it will be more like shaving with a vegetable peeler. Even if he gives up the option year, it is hard to believe that Sosa is willing to just give up $18 million dollars (which is what the option is worth) so you would have to believe that he would want some sort of extension if he comes to the Mets that would pay him some of the money he would be sacrificing. Whether or not this deal would need to be in place before the trade is consummated remains to be seen, but the Chicago Sun-Times says Sosa could be looking to negotiate before any trade.

I am fine with Sosa for one year, but can you imagine a player just giving up $18 million for nothing? I am lead to believe that there is more to it than meets the eye, but this is simply speculation. Then again, if he stays with the Cubs, they certainly wouldn't pick up the option so maybe Sosa just wants out. We'll have to wait and see, but if the Mets think Cliff Floyd is a pain, I’m sure Sosa can give him a run for his money. Omar should walk away from this deal and let Sosa remain the Cubs problem but he seems obsessed with reuniting with the player he once signed. Says one source in the Daily News, “In my mind, I have no doubt that this deal is happening.” I hope that is someone’s idea of a sick joke.

One of the more interesting notes I have seen is that Victor Diaz played a little catcher in a winter league game. I have no idea if the Mets asked for this or if he wanted to see what it was like, but it is an intriguing idea. The biggest knock on Diaz is that he is a man without a true position. He came up as a second baseman but didn’t stick and now he is trying his luck as a corner outfielder but may not be a good enough hitter to be an impact player there; however, as a catcher his bat could be a real asset. Additionally, since he has not been a catcher before his knees should be fresh so that he could handle the grind for a long time. Most guys who catch in the majors have been doing so for years and do not age well (see Piazza, Mike). Jorge Posada is an example of one guy who switched to catcher in the minors and he been more consistent as he has aged than the typical catcher. He is 33 and just had his 3rd highest OPS season. We don’t know how Diaz will handle the position defensively, but this is certainly a storyline to follow this offseason as the Mets look for Piazza’s eventual replacement. This is the type of “outside the box” thinking I like.

Other thoughts… As for Al Leiter, if he leaves, who is the 5th starter? First of all, as much as I like him, they should let Leiter leave. It is time to start moving on from the 1999-2000 "glory years." Do we want to see Aaron Heilman given another chance? Should the Mets be pursuing Matt Clement? If they re-sign Benson, I think Heilman deserves a shot. It may not be any different than before, but then we will know for sure to give up on him. Clement has his own flaws and won’t come cheap, although I do think he is undervalued. If the choice were between Benson and Clement, I would probably choose Clement all things being equal, but as discussed earlier they aren't. The Mets don’t want to lose Benson after giving up three players for him. Plus, there is no way Clement’s wife or girlfriend is hotter…The Mets still need a first baseman. Sexson’s injury worries me and Delgado’s perceived value seems low. If the Mets were to make one free agent signing, I think Delgado is the way to go as long as it is for no more than 3 years. What gets it done? 3 years $30 million?

The "CEO of Pitching, Part II

2004-11-15T17:29:00.000-05:00

On Friday I investigated the effect Rick Peterson had on the starting pitchers, today it is the bullpen. The Mets were 7th in the NL with a team ERA of 4.09. The Mets starters were 8th in the NL with an ERA of 4.21 whereas their bullpen was 7th in the NL with an ERA of 3.87. In what be a surprise to some, the bullpen was the strength of the pitching staff and much of that credit has to go to Rick Peterson because in 2003, the bullpen ERA was 4.28, 10th in the NL.

The star performer for the Mets pen in 2004 was their closer, Braden Looper. When the Mets signed him last winter, I made numerous derogatory remarks to friends about this deal, dubbing him “Pooper Looper.” I was very wrong. I don’t know if it was Looper or Peterson but I assume it was a combination of the two. “Sooper Looper” went from an erratic hard thrower in the Kyle Farnsworth mold to one of the more reliable relievers in the league. Prior to 2004, his best ERA was 3.16 and in 2003 it was 3.68, but with the addition of a splitter and a tweak in his hands from the set position, Looper posted an ERA of 2.70 in 83.1 IP. While not a big strikeout pitcher for someone who throws as hard as he does (6.48 K/9), it was his highest K-rate in four years and his lowest walk rate to boot which led to a K/BB of 3.75, far and away his career best.

Another Mets’ reliever who rebounded to have a strong year was Mike Stanton. 2003 was an atrocious year for the southpaw (4.57 ERA) but he came back to post an ERA of 3.16. It’s hard to pinpoint where the difference came from because his numbers are very similar, the one difference I see is that in 2003 he allowed 6 HR in 45.1 IP while in 2004 it was 6 HR in 77 IP. He also stayed healthy, another plus since he was the Mets only reliable lefty in the pen.

The closest thing Peterson had to reclamation projects was Mike DeJean and Ricky Bottalico who posted ERAs of 1.59 and 3.38 respectively. DeJean’s ERA was only in 21.1 IP, but he has had some success in the NL before with Milwaukee and he was despicable in Baltimore in 2004 before coming to the Mets, so we can hope Peterson has made him functional again. While not dominant, Bottalico was far more useful than I ever could have imagined and since he appeared to be washed up, Peterson deserves some credit.

Peterson also helped the development of Orber Moreno and Heath Bell, two of the younger arms in the pen who look promising. Moreno posted and ERA of 3.38 in 34.2 IP while Bell’s was 3.21 in 24.1 IP. Moreno has a solid K-rate (7.53 K/9) and he keeps the ball in the park as he surrendered zero homers. Bell, on the other hand, misses bats with the best of them (9.99 K/9)but gives up homers at an Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn frequency, allowing 5 in his 24.1 IP. These guys are both 27 so they are not really young by baseball standards. I hope to see them both as fixtures in next years pen.

While he didn’t make anyone a superstar, Peterson seems to have brought the best out of a lot of members of the Mets pitching staff. It is hard to argue with his work, now he will need to keep it up, developing the younger pitchers even further while keeping those he brought to the top, at the top.

Other thoughts…Now that Sammy Sosa says he is willing to waive the option in his contract that kicks in if traded, the rumored trade for Floyd is certainly more palatable; however, I still don’t really want to see him here and would prefer if they tried to trade Floyd to whoever will take him and target Ordonez or Drew for right with Diaz in left, my Aubrey Huff proposal notwithstanding…Carlos Beltran is great, but not as good as his 2004 postseason. His perceived value is at an all-time high so whoever gets him is overpaying. Think of it this way, is Beltran a better hitter than Drew or Ordonez? When healthy, no. The Mets are better off with Cameron in center and one of those guys in right than Beltran in center and Cameron in right. Beltran is healthier and younger, but will probably cost twice as much, which is a lot more than he is worth.

The "CEO of Pitching"

2004-11-12T18:16:00.000-05:00

While all the talk is about who the Mets are going to acquire this offseason, I figured I’d take a look at one of the Mets acquisitions fro last winter, Rick Peterson. Peterson arrived with much fanfare from Oakland as the most progressive pitching coach in the biz if not the best. Not only was he expected to maximize productivity on the mound, he was supposed to keep the pitchers there, and off of the disabled list. Since the Mets folded down the stretch, Peterson became somewhat of an afterthough but I wanted to examine how successful Peterson was in his first season with the Mets.

In the simplest terms, Peterson was definitely successful in 2004, the Mets ERA dropped from 4.48 in 2003 to 4.09 in 2004. Their K/9 went from 5.78 to 6.07, their HR allowed went from 168 to 156 and their WHIP went from 1.47 to 1.41. Conversely, the Mets walked 592 hitters in ‘04 as opposed to 576 in ‘03. While the peripherals improved for the most past, the drop in ERA has a lot to do with an improvement in defense. Their unearned runs dropped from 49 to 26 and while these don’t have a bearing on earned runs, it shows the Mets fielders took better care of the ball, but as we know, errors do not tell the whole story. Baseball Prospectus has a stat called defensive efficiency which measures a teams ability to turn batted balls into outs. In 2004 the Mets ranked 6th in the NL with an efficiency rating of .6964, while in 2003 they were 13th with a rating of .6810. While this may not seem like a large gap (.0154), the difference between the best team in 2004 (LA) and the worst team (COL) was .0338. This is not to say that Peterson did not do a good job, just a reminder to look past ERA. So overall, Peterson did a good job so let’s look at which individuals benefitted most from Peterson’s tutelage. I’ll start with the starters and do the bullpen review in the coming days.

Luckily, for the purposes of this analysis, the personnel of the Mets pitching staff did not change that much so it will be easy to compare performances of individuals from 2003 to 2004. Starting off with Al Leiter, I have no idea why his ERA in 2004 (3.21) was 78 points lower than in 2003. He had fewer Ks, more walks and more HR allowed in 7 fewer IP. He allowed 38 fewer hits, but an identical groundball/flyball ratio. When you pair this ERA improvement with his track record of success, it is hard to give Peterson the credit. It seems like Leiter got lucky with fewer balls dropping for hits and an improved defense. Leiter spent some time on the DL but it is hard to blame Peterson since Leiter’s arm has been more abused than a red-headed step child.

The same goes for Tom Glavine in terms of a track record of success. But he bounced back in 2004 to have a season in line with what he had been doing in his 5 years prior to coming to the Mets after having an awful 2003. His K/9 went up to 4.62 after a career low of 4.03 in 2003. He also pitched 212 innings up from 182 but that had a lot to do with effectiveness and not getting pulled early. He did miss some starts, but that was the fault of a yellow cab driver, if he wants I can hook him up with Arecibo Car Service, they do great work. Some good work from Ricky P. here in getting the Mets a little of their money’s worth here.

Steve Trachsel once again proved himself to be the model of consistency. His numbers were virtually identical from 2003 to 2004. The concern was that after the All-Star break his ERA was 4.80 up from 3.36 before it. In 2003 it was the exact opposite as his post break ERA was 2.80 and 4.61 before. Peterson changed little here.

As for the rest of the rag tag bunch that got starts this year, Peterson didn’t seem to create any stars Leo Mazzone style, then again, he didn’t have much to work with. Jae Seo and Matt Ginter are two soft tossing righties without a track record of success. Not surprisingly, Scott Erickson had nothing left in the tank. Tyler Yates has a live arm, so we will see if Peterson can turn him into a useful reliever but his run as a starter was a failure.

The best I can say for Peterson in 2004 is that I counted only 6 trips to the DL for pitchers. His biggest test will be putting his money where his mouth is and making Victor Zambrano a top of the line starter. The same can be said for Kris Benson, but he isn’t even re-resigned yet. SO in his first year, the Mets as a whole seemed to pitch better, for the starters, a lot of that comes from Glavine, we’ll see how much the bullpen chipped in. Next, I’ll examine the relievers barring any major transactions.

Hey Fellas, Long Time Listener, First Time Caller...

2004-11-11T13:25:00.000-05:00

At this time of year when it seems as though every player is involved in a rumor, it is hard to know which are for real and which are not. The one Mets rumor getting the most press is the Shawn Green for Mike Piazza trade. I am not excited nor depressed at the thought of this trade simply because I don’t think it changes the team very much. Beyond, that, both players need to approve the trade and both of their contract’s will be up after next season so it does not appear as if they are part of the Mets or Dodgers long term plans.

One note that has caught my eye came from Wednesday’s Peter Gammons column. It said:

Tampa Bay is trying to clear salary and shopping SS Julio Lugo, 1B-OF Aubrey Huff, OF Jose Cruz, closer Danys Baez and C Toby Hall. Lugo is a fine player, but his domestic abuse issue in Houston is scaring off teams such as Boston.

Aubrey Huff? I like the sound of that. He will be 28 in December, he has missed only five games over the last two years and he can hit. His numbers for the last three years are a line of .307/.364/.524 with 86 HR. He is a lefty who hits lefties well for average, but with diminished power as his slugging drops 61 points from righties to lefties but that is not unusual. He also put up similar numbers at home and on the road so he is not someone who is a product of their home field. He is signed through 2006 at a reasonable rate ($4.75 in ’05, 6.75 in ’06) so the Mets would have two years to decide if they wanted to bring him back. Sounds great, right? The problem is how to get him.

When I heard he was on the block, my firs thought was, “Why don’t the Rays just give him to the Mets as a sign of goodwill for fleecing us so badly with the Kazmir trade? That seems fair, right?” While us Mets fan might think it fair, we know it is not going to happen. Since the Rays are trying to clear salary, we know that they do not want any of our high priced mediocre talent and after the farm system purging of last July, the Mets do not have much depth in the farm system and I would hate to see them start trading away those guys. So in order to get him, the Mets would need to get creative.

To acquire Huff without giving up their best prospects (Lastings Milledge, Yusmeiro Petit and Gaby Hernandez) the Mets would need to take on another one of these players, if not more. Cruz is relatively enticing but he only makes $3 million for one more year so I doubt the Rays feel the need to dump him that badly, then again, he is not that great of a player. Baez on the other hand makes $3.5 million next year and guaranteed $1 million the following year with a $4 million dollar team option and if the Rays don’t want to pay that, the Mets are a team that could eat that salary. Would the Rays go for a package of Victor Diaz and Craig Brazell for Huff, Cruz and Baez? Are the Mets giving up enough? Is that worth it for the Mets in order to get Huff?

I feel like one of those psycho callers on WFAN right now as I concoct a trade out of thin air but I am hoping that this makes a little sense. The Mets would be taking $18.9 million over two years off of the Rays hands while giving them a good prospect in Diaz and a future cornerstone of the company softball team in Brazell. I like Diaz, but the best-case scenario is that he turns into the hitter that Huff already is. Since he is a corner outfielder he is replaceable. Baez is serviceable (3.86 career ERA in the AL, 7.51 K/9), albeit overpaid, but could be worse and the Mets take Cruz and Baez off of the books after 2005.

Is this trade worth it? I think it might be and would be interested to hear your thoughts. I like it a lot better than the rumored Jose Reyes deals or the Sammy Sosa deal, but like I said, it is my concoction so maybe it isn’t even worth talking about. I am still in support of pursuing Delgado for no more than three years. Whatever happens, I don’t want to see the Mets giving up any of their best young talent and should only do it if it is a really good deal. In this case, I think Diaz is worth giving up. Do you? Most likely, the rumor mill will turn toward someone else and the Aubrey Huff talk will be yesterday’s news.

Remember the Alomar

2004-11-08T16:00:00.000-05:00

With the GM meetings kicking off down in Florida, the hot stove season is picking up steam. As Mets fans know, this has been the most exciting part about being a fan these last few years because we will always believe that there is one move around the corner that can turn us into contenders. Unfortunately, every potential move I have read about so far is frightening me.

Over at Metsblog, the rumors are flying fast and furious. One has the Mets trading Jose Reyes for Alfonso Soriano (a trade that has been rumored before), trading Cliff Floyd and Mike Piazza for Sammy Sosa and signing Orlando Cabrera. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, they should not trade Jose Reyes under any circumstances, nor should they acquire Sammy Sosa under any circumstances. There may be not truth to this specific rumor whatsoever, but Reyes and Sosa are two names that keep coming up in trade talks and this is worrisome. There is also word from Ed Coleman at WFAN that it is likely the Mets will bring back Richard “Mr. July” Hidalgo.

The biggest problem with the Mets over the last few years is that the feel that because they are a big market club and they are struggling, they need to make a big splash in the offseason. Just because you have money, doesn’t mean you need to spend it. As any Knicks fan can tell you, these are the same problems that got them in trouble. If the Mets were a skyscraper, they should be knocking down the whole thing to build back up instead of knocking down a few floors and trying to build up from halfway up. I realize this is a weak metaphor, but it doesn’t mean it is any less true. Why pay big money for Soriano, Cabrera and Hidalgo when they can get the same production from Reyes, Matsui and Diaz for very little? Soriano, Cabrera and Hidalgo are known quantities, but part of what they are known for is being wildly inconsistent. Plus, the Mets could be forced to give up compensation if Cabrera is offered arbitration by Boston and turns it down. By the way, Cabrera is not that good, at least not offensively.

His career OPS is .725. He had what was considered a breakout year in 2003, but that had a lot to do with hitter’s paradise that was Hiram-Bithorn before they tweaked the fences. In 2003 his home numbers were .332/.380/.515 and his road numbers were .265/.316/.409. Granted, he also performed well at Olympic Stadium (.328/.381/.518) but that season is the outlier for his career. Beyond that, his next highest OPS was .752 in 2001. He is 30 and is most likely to get worse, not better and even though he has an outstanding defensive reputation, that is also going to severely decline into his 30’s. He is getting a lot of credit for turning the Red Sox season around with his defense, but his accomplishments should be kept in proper perspective. Cabrera is a slightly above average 30 year old shortstop, Reyes could be a real star.

I realize there may be no truth to any of this, but all the Mets talk seems to surround mediocre veterans with inflated reputations which are the types of acquisitions that have led to the Mets demise. The only big name free agents that make sense for the Mets are Carlos Delgado and Magglio Ordonez, and Ordonez will only work if they can get rid of Floyd. The Mets have a whole at 1st base so Delgado makes sense. There is talk of Richie Sexson but he worries me based on the following info from Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus

Some teams like facts, some teams like faith. It's like that in a lot of places, but putting millions on the line in hopes that someone will do something sounds to me like something I'd want facts on. The Mariners seem to be fixated on Richie Sexson. They'll point to Ken Griffey Jr., who was able to come back from more serious shoulder surgery, or Shawn Green who came back from similar surgery to hit well. It's Green that I would compare most closely to Sexson's situation. Green's still not all the way back, a combination of shoulder degeneration and the passing of time. If that's enough for the Mariners, well, that is their pattern.

If his injury is similar to Shawn Green, that is huge red flag because he is, at best, 75% of his pre-injury self. Also, Sexson is younger and will probably be commanding a longer deal so let the Mariners have him. Delgado, I’m guessing, could be had for three years which would be perfect. While he may not be around for the next Mets dynasty, he could help the Mets compete and a huge year from him along with development from Wright and Reyes could put the Mets into a wild card race. He finished strong and since he involked his no-trade clause to stay in Toronto made some GMs think that he doesn’t have the desire to play for a winner. That is fine with me because it will drive down his value.

There are weaknesses and their are holes. The Mets have a hole at first, and a hole in the outfield in Cliff Floyd. Omar Minaya’s main concern should be finding a way to get rid of Floyd and sign a first baseman. They should treat Floyd the same way they did Jeromy Burnitz and Roberto Alomar. They were bad acquisition so the Mets cut their losses and got whatever they could for them and moved on. I also think they should make a play for Delgado. I’m tired of the Mets spending a lot of money and getting little value simply because they can. It’s the reason they have been so bad the last few years.

At Least He Lasted Longer Than Belichick With The Jets

2004-11-05T13:36:00.000-05:00

At least Mets fans can take solace in the fact that there is at least one organization in baseball a lot crappier than them. Channeling my inner Chandler Bing here when I ask, "Could the Diamondbacks be any worse?"

In the press conference Ken Kendrick (Arizona general partner) said that they were never make the same mistake of hiring someone in the organization without a background check. Hey Ken, you hired Wally to manage your Single-A team this season so this is already the second time the organization has hired him presumably without a background check.

Kendrick also said that no contract was in place so they have no financial responsibility to Backman. I haven’t passed the bar but I know a little bit and I have to think that Backman could consider a lawsuit here. They gave him the job, they had a press conference and then they took it away based on character issues they ignored in hiring him and then blamed his removal on those issues. It doesn’t appear as if he withheld any information so now he doesn’t have a job they hired him for and his character is destroyed. Whatever happens, Backman’s career is screwed thanks to the Diamondbacks. Trump has more discretion in hiring and firing employees.

Wally can now join the Bill Belichick hall of fame for coaches who have lasted less than a week. He can have a toast with George O’Leary and pour a little out for Eddie Stanky. Let's at least hope Wally raided the supply closet and stole some D-Backs merchandise. Then again, who would want anything with those silly colors?

That Was Quick

2004-11-05T13:11:00.000-05:00

When I chose Wally Backman as my nom de plume, I was doing it as a tribute to my favorite Met of my youth, I didn't realize he would become such a controversial figure. But the East Valley Tribune is reporting that the D-Backs have fired Wally Backman and will hire Bob Melvin. Presumably, this is because of Backman's indiscretions that have been revealed. A domestic dispute with a female friend, filing for Chapter 11 and a DUI. What remains to be seen is if Backman lied on his application about his past problems. It's a important because if he lied, they won't have to pay him. It's also possible the D-Backs decided to cut their losses because they have enough to worry about without this bad PR coming from their manager and they don't care about having to pay him. More on this as details become available.

Brooklyn's Finest

2004-11-04T15:04:00.000-05:00

As I have advocated before, I think Willie Randolph is a great man for the job. He will command respect and is revered around baseball. When the Mets hired Art Howe, I thought it was smart because I hoped he could implement some of the principles that made Oakland successful. It turns out that he was simply Billy Beane’s puppet.

Critics of Randolph will complain that he has no major league managing experience and that he is a Yankee. Even though he has no managing experience, I am fully confident that he understands the game well enough to handle the job. Managing baseball is not that complicated relative to other sports and Willie has the ability to do it. As for him being a Yankee, I couldn’t care less. He brings a stoicism and confidence that the Mets sorely lack.

Mets fans can pontificate all they want about the new manager, but he won’t make that much of a difference on the field, it’s the players. Wille can be most effective by working with Omar on creating an intelligent long-term plan for the organization and implementing it. He should also be able to rejuvenate local interest since he is a Brooklyn native. If Minaya can make some smart personnel decisions, Willie is going to look like a great choice. If he brings in the Sammy Sosa and some other aging/overpriced veterans, Willie will be gone in two years.

On a purely frivolous note, Randolph wore the traditional Mets pinstripes and blue hat in the press conference and I hope that look returns as the Mets primary uniform this season. The Mets colors are blue and orange, they should be proud of them. If Randolph brings a traditional attitude from the Yankees and that attitude involves bringing back the blue hat and pinstripes, I will be at the team store soon picking me up one of those lids.

So far so good for Omar this off-season, now the real work begins. Let's Go Mets.

Stupid Voters

2004-11-03T13:49:00.000-05:00

As we all know, Tuesday November 2nd was Election Day. Americans went to the polls to vote for president and other public offices. In baseball, there was also an election as the American League Gold Glove winners were announced. In the presidential election, it appears as though George W. Bush will get four more years, and in baseball, Derek Jeter won his first Gold Glove. Why these two victories are not on the same plane in terms of importance, they do have one thing in common; they show us how stupidity has permeated this country.

I will not get on my liberal soapbox and ramble on about how Bush sucks for two reasons. One, because that is not what this elections was about, to me it was about an incumbent not earning four more years with his performance in the first four and two, because this is a baseball blog. It just blows my mind how Bush could actually do better in 2004 than he did in 2000. What also blows my mind is that Derek Jeter, arguably the worst defensive shortstop in baseball, won a Gold Glove. These are two examples of people voting on everything besides evidence. What they used as their basis for voting, I don’t know but it was not the facts.

How bad is Jeter? It is hard to know where to begin because not only do statistics say he is awful, scouts say it as well so this is not even an instance where the stathead world and the scouting world don’t see eye to eye. Jeter’s defense has been of the greatest points of contention among fans, writers, announcers, players, coaches and sabermetricians. If you only watched the YES Network or listen to John Sterling, you would be led to believe that Jeter is as good at short as anyone in the game and the rest of the ignorant baseball world is quick to drink the Kool-Aid and accept that along with Jeter being a “winner.” When I first heard about Jeter receiving the honor, I was not surprised that the writers would give it to him. I subsequently learned that the coahces and managers choose the honor and was dumbfounded. They should know better.

While Jeter’s Gold Glove is theoretically for this season’s performance only, it is important to show how bad he has been over the years yet managed to maintain a good defensive reputation. For example, Tony Gwynn wrote this on ESPN.com. “It’s about time Jeter won a Gold Glove. With Omar Vizquel not playing everyday, and A-Rod at third, things opened up for Jeter. But if you watch him play, you know he has been a Gold Glove-caliber for awhile.” I’m not so sure Tony. From 2001 to 2003 he was last in the AL in zone rating each year. From 2000-2003 Jeter was 28 runs below average per 162 games based on Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). That means that an average defensive shortstop would save you 28 runs per season more than Jeter, that figure is the worst of any shortstop in baseball during that time. As for the scouting perspective, the following is from this season’s “The Scouting Notebook,” published by Sporting News. “…one thing is hard to deny, other shortstops handle balls that [Jeter] doesn’t.”

This season Jeter was middle of the pack in terms of zone rating as he finished sixth in the AL in zone rating and anecdotal evidence seemed to support improvement; however, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average, he was actually 2 runs below average which is a lot better than his previous 8 season average of 17.25 runs below average. So Jeter did have his best fielding season statistically, but at his best, he is still below average. I know fielding stats don’t tell the whole story, but there is no anecdotal evidence that would overcome these obvious statistical shortcomings. Not to mention the fact that his improvement could be a fluke and based on more balls being hit right at him this year. I will trust the poor statistics from 1996-2003 as evidence of what porous shortstop Jeter plays.

I will readily admit that I dislike Jeter, but he is a fine player. He is simply the most overrated player currently in baseball for reasons such as his supposed intangibles, which are immeasurable, and relatively worthless and because people believe he is good at defense when he is clearly not. Jeter winning a Gold Glove renders the award virtually meaningless.

Now that is off my chest, there will be more Mets posts soon.

Wally The Snake

2004-11-01T14:18:00.000-05:00

Wally Backman, my favorite Met ever (as you can probably tell by my pseudonym) has just been hired as manager of the Arizona Diamonbacks. There is certainly a part of me that would have loved to see him as manager of the Mets, but that did not seem like a realistic possibility. Although he was scheduled to interview for the Mets job, he was considered a long shot all the way and it seemed as though Los Wilpones were only bringing him in to appease the Mets fans that are dying to reconnect the current crop with the ’86 Mets in some way.

As much as I love Wally, I don’t want the Mets to hire a manager based on what they think is good PR. Soon after Howe was fired, it seemed as though they were determined to do just that as a lot of the new manager talk centered around Lenny Dykstra and to a lesser extent, Backman. The cynic in me is surprised by this because if there is one organization that would hire a manager based on what they thought would be popular as opposed to helpful, it would be the Mets. The fact that they are considering Willie Randolph contradicts this theory because when I read the other Mets blogs, no one seems to want Randolph for the job.

Backman will have his work cut out for him in Arizona as he is entering a situation that is probably even worse than the Mets. His team has little major league talent and nothing fantastic on the farm. Trading Randy Johnson would be a positive step in rebuilding that organization. The following is from the New York Post.

Randy Johnson with the White Sox? The Yanks want him, but they might only be able to land him in a three-way trade. The Cardinals are the new darlings in the field. But the White Sox, with a package built around Carlos Lee and Jon Garland, could be most attractive.

Is Arizona getting GM tips from the Mets? While Garland is relatively young (25) he is not a stud with a career 4.68 ERA and only 4.98 K/9. He has also given up 62 home runs in the last two seasons. Carlos Lee is good, but for a corner outfielder, his numbers are nothing special. Then again, this might not even be a legitimate rumor but simple speculation from the Post. Either way, the D-Backs should use Johnson to acquire at least three good prospects. Not only would this help them in the long run, it would also keep the Big Unit away from the Yankees who have no worthy prospects.

Here’s hoping Wally has a successful managerial career, but most likely he will be the fall guy for Arizona in two years when they are still losing 95 games even though they have an awful team and there is nothing he can do about it. Then, he will get to join the Bob Melvin’s of the world in the elite club of retread major league managers. There are worse ways to make a living.

"Outside-the-Box"

2004-10-29T15:45:00.000-04:00

A story in today’s issue of Newsday discusses the possibility of the Mets going after Sammy Sosa and Manny Ramirez. As I have addressed in an earlier post, going after Sosa is the worst thing they could possibly do based solely on this.

In Sosa's case, the main impediment is his high salary and sticky contract; a clause triggers another guaranteed year at $18 million if he's dealt. Counting buyout money, an acquiring team would be on the hook for $39.5 million over two years, a high figure for a slugger in decline.

Instead of rehashing my arguments against Sosa, I wanted to point out a fascinating excerpt from the story.

The conventional wisdom was that the Mets would target Magglio Ordoñez to bolster their limp lineup. But Mets people tout new general manager Omar Minaya's "outside-the- box" thinking, and a potential blockbuster involving either Ramirez, from Washington Heights, or Sosa could be the first prime example. In yet another example of outside-the-box thinking, the Mets are for the first time willing to entertain offers for prized young shortstop Jose Reyes. There has been speculation regarding a Reyes-for-Alfonso Soriano deal, but the Mets won't consider that because Soriano will make $8 million in arbitration.

I’m not sure what to make of this “outside-the-box thinking.” If it involves acquiring high priced aging players than I am confused because as I see it, we have been suffocating inside that box for the last three years. By branding his thinking “outside-the-box,” does that give Minaya license for stupidity? If his “outside-the-box thinking” involved trying to find bargain free agents while our younger players developed than that would be great, but apparently it is to do the exact same thing the Mets have been doing for years.

I thought Minaya was brought in to change the way the Mets run the organization, but apparently the Wilpons were just looking for another lap dog because Duquette just wasn’t doing the trick. I cannot think of a worse idea than acquiring Sosa, and while I am down on Reyes right now because of his poor OBP, give the kid a chance. He was not so long ago considered one of the best prospects in baseball and he is younger than David Wright. As for Manny Ramirez, he grew up in Washington Heights like I did and has been my favorite non-Met for years so I can’t say I hate the site of him in orange and blue; however, I don’t realistically envision the Red Sox putting him on waivers again but if they did, he might actually be worth his outrageous salary because at least you would get one of the best hitters in the league who has been remarkably consistent and wouldn’t be earning much more than “Not So Slammin’ Anymore” Sammy. Let’s hope this is all just talk, but the early reports on Minaya are not positive.

Omar Epstein?

2004-10-28T15:13:00.000-04:00

For a season in which the Mets were out of it, this was as good as it gets. Not only did I enjoy rooting for the Red Sox as the Yankees’ nemesis, I just enjoyed rooting for them because they an easy team to root for. They are run by a GM whose philosophy I agree with, and they are filled with strong players who have personality. Obviously I’m biased, but they are the most entertaining team since the ’86 Mets.

What disheartened me as the Red Sox closed it out last night was something my friend said to me, a friend that is a fellow passionate Mets fan. He said, “This is what the Mets could be if they were at all smart.” It’s true. If the Mets had a smarter front office with a commitment to a philosophy, they could be a 90 win team for years with the amount of money they have.

As a fan, it is hard not to look at free agents on the market and not want to sign them, particularly when the Mets have the resources to do so. What the Mets need to make a higher priority than that is getting rid of some of their older players who are just placeholders and will not be around the next time the Mets are contenders. Glavine and Floyd? If anyone is willing to take them, let them have them. We don’t need much in return, the Mets can do better on the cheap. For example, Eric Valent was more productive than Cliff Floyd last year based on Baseball Prospectus’ Marginal Lineup Value Rate. For those not as sabermetrically inclined, he had a higher slugging, OPS and batting average, just don’t start him against lefties. There are others like Eric Valent out there, guys who will give you bang for your buck and allow you to spend on big money free agents when the time is right, not just because you can.

The housecleaning of 2003 is a perfect example of what the Mets should do. They traded away a bunch of guys (Alomar, Burnitz et al.) and ate a lot of salary, but they acquired a slew of minor leaguers and ended up with Victor Diaz who could be a contributor for a long time. They could’ve done that again this July by trying to find takers for Floyd, Glavine and Leiter, but instead they did the opposite. No point rehashing that now, but the Mets should look to the Red Sox as an example of what they could be.

Don’t get me wrong, the Sox were not perfect in their maneuvers, they had a lot of luck as well. For example, they got outbid for Jose Contreras, they wanted to trade for Javier Vazquez but the Expos said they didn’t have enough so they “settled” for Curt Schilling, they almost traded Derek Lowe for Esteban Loaiza! While these went there way, they were still in the position to succeed with big money stars like Manny and Pedro and surrounding them with great investments like Bellhorn, Mueller, Nixon, Damon and Ortiz. The Mets try and use the Yankees model (keep buying big) and fail, they should look to the 2004 Red Sox instead. We have Omar Minaya who I have faith, but I hope he mixes in a little Theo Epstein. Omar Epps(tein)?

Big News!

2004-10-26T11:43:00.000-04:00

This was at the bottom of the story about Willie Randolph’s interview in The New York Times today.

Reliever ORBER MORENO had surgery on his right shoulder Thursday. ... Pitchers VICTOR ZAMBRANO and MIKE DeJEAN were activated from the disabled list yesterday.

Great news Mets fans! Victor Zambrano is off the disabled list! Finally, we can get back in the race and show everyone that the Scott Kazmir trade was worth it! I don’t know what is sillier, that the Mets actually announced this or that the Times reported it. Who knew they kept track of the DL in the off-season? Well, the Mets certainly do and now they can get Zambrano in the capable hands of Rick Peterson so he can work his magic. I actually believe that Zambrano will be an effective starter for the Mets, but still not worth Scott Kazmir with the state of the Mets future.

In other news…As reported over at The Metropolitans, Kaz Matsui’s old team, the Seibu Lions won the Japanese World Series. Although I don’t believe in it, this is a perfect example of Bill Simmons’ Ewing Theory…As you can imagine, I am excited that the Mets are granting Wally Backman an interview, but it looks like Willie Randolph would have to get caught at a strip club with Mike Price while triple kissing a college girl with Larry Eustachy to not get the job.

Jose Can You See, The Ball Out of the Stike Zone?

2004-10-25T13:14:00.000-04:00

Things are a little cold on the onld "Hot Stove" as free agents can't be signed until after the World Series. Yes, the Mets are about to hire a manager, but how much of a difference can that make? There is no Bill Parcells out there who can take a team with 70 win talent and take them to 90 wins. Right now, the Mets are a 75-80 team at best and the players on the field are for more important than the manager. Since things are slow, I wanted to talk about something Mets fans should keep an eye out for and that is the performance of Jose Reyes.

When most people talk about Reyes, it is often prefaced with, "if he can stay healthy..." because as we know, he has had serious hamstring problems. To watch Reyes on the field is a joy, he has amazing speed, a cannon for an arm and has some pop. When he came up as a rookie in 2003, he struggled at first but came on strong before a hamstring injury ended his season. In August 2003 he had 110 AB and hit 4 HR with 10 BB while putting up a line of .355/.408/.509. Mets fans were salivating for a full season of this after his season ended prematurely. Obviously, he was hot and it is hard to expect this from him for a season, but there was reason to believe he was going to be the star everyone predicted he thought he would become. Unfortunately, the numbers for the rest of his career are far less impressive. In his other 384 AB he has only 3 HR, 8 BB and a line of .263/.277/.378. If you are thinking I replaced Neifi Perez's numbers for Reyes', I didn't.

If you want to chalk up some of his poor 2004 because of injury, I can accept that. But beyond getting over his hamstring problems, he needs work on one important aspect of hitting, plate discipline. For Reyes to reach his utmost value, he needs to be on base as much as possible to utilize his speed on the bases. Not only is he a burner, but he also is a fantastic base stealer who is 32 for 37 for his career. If he continues to walk once every 28.5 PA, the Mets are in serious trouble because that career .307 OBP is not going to get it done. For him to be a real star, he needs to be getting on base at .375 clip while providing some pop.

Reyes has never drawn a lot of walks, even in the minors; however, it was never this bad. If he can walk close to once ever 10 AB, that would acceptable as long as he was hitting in the .300 range and providing some power. Reyes has not walked at this frequency since his stint at St. Lucie in 2002 and his walk rate has been getting worse ever since. He does not need to walk to be successful, but if he doesn't, he needs to hit for a much higher average. Ichiro, for example, does not walk a lot, but he hits over .330 consistently so his lack of walk is not an issue since he has a career OBP of .384. Note, even he walks once every 15.9 PA.

The biggest bright spot for the Mets right now is David Wright, he was everything he was advertised to be in his time with the Mets. If the Mets want to have an infield for the ages, they need to address Reyes lack of plate discipline ASAP, because Neifi Perez is nothing to get excited about, and even Neifi would play better defense.

Let My Cameron Go?

2004-10-20T10:55:00.000-04:00

Watching Carlos Beltran this post-season has made one thing abundantly clear: he is worth about as much as any free agent you will see. He is a good defensive centerfielder with excellent on base skills, a lot of pop and a 90% base stealer. Unfortunately, he will most likely not end up with the Mets.

Mets fans can fantasize all they want about signing Beltran and moving either he or Cameron to right or left, but I don’t see it happening. The Mets signed Cameron last season to play center field knowing full well that Beltran would hit the market this offseason. They could’ve come up with a short-term solution, but they chose not to, instead, signing Cameron to sensible a three year $19.5 million deal. This deal, along with the acquisition of Eric Valent, was the best move the Mets made last winter.

One has to figure that Beltran wants to stay a centerfielder, so he is not going to go anywhere he can’t play the position. That said we know Cameron was acquired mainly for his defense and despite his poor zone rating this season, his main value lies in his ability to catch balls in center. Moving him to right or left completely undermines his value. The Mets don’t need another corner outfielder who posts a sub .800 OPS, they had Roger Cedeno for that. The only option would be to trade Cameron and try and sign Beltran, which is a very risky proposition because if the Mets don’t get Beltran, they lose one of their best players when you consider what he brings as a centerfielder and his salary.

Also, with his performance this postseason, Beltran’s asking price tag will certainly be going up. As good as Beltran is, he is not as good as he has played in the last two weeks and no team should allow that to inflate the value of an already great player. I don’t know what his asking price is going to be, but I could see a few million being tacked on based on this October. Any team that pays more because of his October heroics are suckers. Unfortunately, the Yankees are probably willing to pay the sucker fee and it won’t hurt them but the Mets have a more limited budget and must resist the temptation to make moves based on what the Yankees are doing.

Also, let us not forget that the Mets actually have a good centerfield prospect! Lastings Milledge had a fantastic year in the Sally League (.337 AVG/.399 OBP/.579 SLG) and although he struggled a bit in his short stint at St. Lucie, his plate discipline showed some improvement and that appears to be his biggest shortcoming as a player from what I have read. He is a few years away, but he could be ready by 2007, when Cameron’s contract is up. If not, the Mets have an option for Cameron for 2007. It seems to me that the Mets were thinking of Milledge when they signed Cameron.

It's Willie's Turn

2004-10-18T15:53:00.000-04:00

I think I am officially a Willie Randolph advocate. This may change if a new candidate comes, but if the choice is between Randolph and Rudy Jaramillo, I am going with Randolph and this has more to do with Jaramillo than it has to do with Randolph. Jaramillo has gotten a lot of good press recently for being a fantastic hitting coach, but I’m not sure his track record is as impressive as it is being made out to be.

As we know, Texas plays in one of the best hitters parks in the majors and last season the Rangers were third in the majors in home scoring putting up a line of .285 AVG/.350 OBP/.486 SLG as a team at home. Conversely, they were 21st in the league in road scoring with a line of .246/.309/.425. While a hitting coach can only work with what he has, the Rangers road numbers are very bad, they were one of the worst teams in the leagues at drawing walks (20th in the league, one spot behind our beloved Mets) and that .309 OBP on the road is particularly paltry.

When you look at individual players on the Rangers, there are certain questions that arise as well. For example, Alfonso Soriano. After being traded to the Rangers, one would expect his production to rise considering he was moving from a park tough on right handed power hitters to a renowned hitters park. Instead, he had his worst year since 2001. Laynce Nix, a somewhat promising young hitter posted an OBP of .293. In Jaramillo’s defense, Michael Young had a breakout year and Hank Blalock showed an improvement in hitting lefties, but it is not as if the Rangers have suddenly become an offensive juggernaut because of Jaramillo. It also seems that a lot of their offensive numbers are inflated because of their park and that many of these players are not as good as their numbers indicate.

In 2004 the Rangers won 89 games and just missed out on the Wild Card. In 2003 the won 71 games and the difference is almost entirely in the pitching. This season they scored 860 runs and surrendered 794, in 2003 it was 826 and 969. They gave 175 fewer runs, that is why they were so much better! All the credit goes to the pitching, 34 more runs is nothing to write home about. The point is that Jaramillo looks good like an exciting candidate because the Rangers success, but the Rangers did nothing differently offensively than they had last season, or the year before that and no one was talking about Jaramillo as a candidate back then.

Yes, Jaramillo still might make a good manager, but the reason the Mets are talking about bringing him in as manager is because he is some sort of hitting guru, but that doesn’t appear to be true regardless of what A-Rod says. The Mets need a guy who will preach OBP, particularly with Jose Reyes whose lack of patience makes him look more and more like a young Christian Guzman as opposed to a young Rafael Furcal without the jail time. Similarly, Victor Diaz also lacks patience and like Reyes, he is still in his formative years and those years are running out. The Rangers poor OBP is a huge strike against Jaramillo as far as I’m concerned. One thing I know about Willie Randolph is that he was a fantastic OBP guy as a player who for his career averaged 91 walks per 162 games. He is also coming from the Yankees, an organization that stresses OBP.

Neither of these guys has managed in the majors so it is a draw there. What I like about Randolph is that he has worked for a meddling ownership in the past, which is invaluable. As I have said, Joe Torre’s greatest strength is his ability to tune out Steinbrenner and manage the way he wants to, I think Randolph will be able to do that too having dealt with Steinbrenner as a player and coach. Fred and Jeff are child’s play compared to the Boss. Randolph has sat and waited for a chance at a manager job and he probably deserved one before Lee Mazzilli, I hope the Mets give him a chance.

I'll Take Ignorant Comments for $400 Alex

2004-10-16T15:35:00.000-04:00

When Joe Torre was asked about the Mets interviewing Willie Randolph for their managerial position, his response was, "I just hope to hell it's more than just, 'We have to interview minorities and stuff and he's right across the river, so let's do it." I respect Torre as a manager, but comments like this are imbecilic. He clearly knows nothing about the inner workings of the Mets front office. They may be stupid, but they do not discriminate based on race. They just hired Omar Minaya as GM and have interviewed Carlos Tosca and Rudy Jaramillo for their managerial position, Randolph is by no means a token candidate. I am dismayed that none of the reporters present when Torre made this comment did not point this out.

In other news, the Mets were apparently waiting to see how the Tigers negotiation went with #2 pick Justin Verlander before moving forward with Phillip Humber. In this story, Humber seems optimistic a deal is going to get done which is positive, but the fact that the Tigers have broken off negotiations with Justin Verlander is not, nor is the Devil Rays willingness to give their pick, Jeff Niemann, a major league contract. These pitchers demanding major league contracts is absurd, and I applaud the teams that refuse to relent. These guys are no Mark Prior, and with his injuries, now it isn't clear if even Mark Prior is Mark Prior so even if you have Mark Prior it doesn't seem worth it. It is foolish for these pitchers to pass up these huge bonuses. I understand negotiating, but refusing to sign is dumb, particularly for a pitcher when one injury can ruin your career. Also, if you do turn out to be a major league star, you are delaying the time before you become a free agent and thus you will be one year older and less valuable when you do. I hope the Mets stand strong with the Humber negotiations, let him be the next Matt Harrington for all I care.

At Least We Didn't Trade Kazmir, Right?

2004-10-14T11:39:00.000-04:00

I’m nauseous, really, really nauseous. I may actually vomit. You know those moves that get made during the middle of the season where some mediocre starter and a bullpen arm are shipped for another bullpen arm with a couples of nameless minor leaguers thrown in? Well the Mets made one of those two years ago that probably went unnoticed by everyone except neurotic agate page readers and obsessed Mets fans like myself who are reading this blog. Actually, it did go unnoticed by me because one of two "nameless minor leaguers" included by the Mets was not considered a top prospect, but apparently had some potential.

On July 31st 2003, the Mets acquired Steve Reed and Jason Middlebrook from the Padres for Bobby M. Jones, Josh Reynolds and Jason Bay. That’s right, Jason Bay. The same Jason Bay who was then traded along with Oliver Perez to the Pirates for Brian Giles. The same Jason Bay who in 411 AB put up the following line: 26 HR, .282 AVG/.358 OBP/.507 SLG. The same Jason Bay who could and should win National League Rookie of the Year.

I discovered this while leafing through Baseball Prospectus 2004 to see which players they had correctly predicted to have breakout seasons and I saw that Jason Bay had played at St. Lucie and Binghamton. Am I the only one who was not aware of this? To acquire Steve Reed and Jason Middlebrook most likely in support of some ill-fated and delusional post-season run, the Mets gave up a potential long-term solution in the outfield?

While Bay was not a top prospect as determined by Baseball America, they grade prospects based mostly on tools and although Bay is not an astounding physical specimen, he had put up decent enough numbers to keep around. In 261 AB at St. Lucie in 2002 he hit 9 HR and .272/.363/.437. While not fantastic, the organization thought enough of him to promote him to Binghamton where in 107 AB he hit 4 HR and .290/.383/.477. He showed improvement while moving up! Not to mention the fact that at high A-ball in 2001 in the Expos system he had an OPS 1021 with 13 HR in 318 AB. As soon as the Mets traded him, Bay began raking at Double and Triple-A for the Padres where he was considered good enough to help acquire Brian Giles. Bay was drafted by the Expos and the Mets acquired him and RHP Jim Serrrano for SS Lou Collier. The Mets had just fleeced the Expos and acquired a gem, and then didn’t realize it and got fleeced by the Padres. Also, the day the Mets made this trade they were 55-51 and 13.5 games behind the Braves. They would lose 18 of their next 21. Does this sound familiar? It's okay, at least we still have Kazmir.

As Bill Simmons would say, “I will now light myself on fire.”

Still No Love For the Vet

2004-10-12T13:51:00.000-04:00

Not to kick a guy while he is down, but when I heard that Chipper Jones named his son Shea, I had to investigate. Jones claims the reason that he chose to name his son Shea is because of how well he plays at Shea Stadium. Said Jones, “I love playing there, check the numbers.” So I did. Below is a chart of Jones’ performance at the other NL East Stadiums. I am only using the NL East because those are the only other stadiums other than his own where he has more than 200 AB and even that is a relatively small sample size. Conveniently, all the parks in the NL East play as modest pitchers parks so even though they are not the same, they are pretty close which allows for an easy comparison. I also did not include the Phillies’ new Citizens Bank Park because he has had so few AB there.

Shea
AB 255
HR 17
AVG .310
OBP .400
SLG .565
OPS .965
Olympic
AB 252
HR 8
AVG .341
OBP .448
SLG .544
OPS .992
Veterans
AB 220
HR 13
AVG .350
OBP .471
SLG .618
OPS 1.089
Pro Player
AB 239
HR 8
AVG .285
OBP .378
SLG .444
OPS .822
Turner
AB 2218
HR 138
AVG .317
OBP .415
SLG .572
OBP .987
Career
AB 5616
HR 310
AVG .304
OBP .401
SLG .537
OPS .938

When it comes to home runs, Chipper knows what he is talking about. He hits a home run for every 15 AB at Shea while at Veterans (his closest competition) he hits one ever 16.9. For comparison sake, he hits one ever 16.1 AB at Turner Field and one every 18.1 for his carrer. Beyond homers, it looks like Chipper should’ve considered some other names for his son because his rate stats are better at both Olympic and Veterans Stadium, not to mention his own Turner Field. His average, OBP and SLG are higher at Veterans Stadium than at Shea. Although he hits more homers at Shea than Veterans, he makes up for that with 71 more points of OBP and 53 points of slugging at the Phormer Phillies’ park.

Let’s be honest, shouldn’t he have considered naming his son Veterans? Beyond having better numbers there than at Shea, it would’ve been a living tribute to a beautiful park that no longer exists much like George Constanza wanting to name his son or daughter Seven in honor of Mickey Mantle. Veterans Jones has a pretty nice ring to it, everyone could call him V.J.

Say It Ain't Sosa

2004-10-08T15:53:00.000-04:00

The latest filthy rumor being tossed around New York is that the Mets are interested in acquiring Sammy Sosa. Hopefully this will not be the way Omar Minaya introduces himself as the Mets GM. Minaya signed Sosa when he was working for the Rangers so they have a history. What is troubling about Minaya so far is that between Sosa and the managerial candidates, every single one seems to be friends with or associated with Minaya. We do not need our GM stacking the organization with his buddies. That is no better than Fred Wilpon asking the Expos to draft Jeff as a favor reported in The New York Times recently.

First off, Sosa’s contract is ridiculous. He will make $17 million next season and has an $18 million option for 2006 with a $4.5 million buyout. If Sosa is traded, his 2006 contract becomes guaranteed and a 2007 team option is added at $19 million with a $4.5 million buyout. I realize that if he is acquired the Mets would be giving up salary and the Cubs would hopefully be paying some of his, but Sosa to the Mets is a bad idea. You want more proof? Here goes.

1.174, .993, .911, .849. That is Sosa’s OPS each year from 2001-2004. 64, 49, 40, 35. Those are his home runs each year from 2001-2004. He missed 36 games this year and 25 last year. He is 35 and moves like it. Will he sell some tickets? Maybe in April and May, but teams come to see winners, not aging stars. Does anyone remember Mo Vaughn? Even if they traded Cliff Floyd for Sosa, that is not progress for the organization because they are basically the same player. They are often hurt, they don’t move well, they make a lot of money and they aren’t getting any better or younger. Sosa is still better, but he is older so a sharp decline is more likely. Acquiring Sosa would be more of the same for the Mets, leaving one to wonder why they hired Minaya in the first place.

Vlad the (L)impaler

2004-10-07T14:59:00.000-04:00

This may be blasphemous , but as I watch Vlad Guerrero limp around the outfield for the Angels this postseason, I'm starting to think the Mets made the right choice in not signing him which was the way I felt at the time but was somewhat swayed with his phenomenal performance.

Obviously, he had a monster season and looks like a lock to do so for at least a couple of more years. The question is, come the fourth and fifth year of his deal with the Angels, is that contract still going to be looking good or will he be dragging his feet around right at the Big A? Will Carroll, injury guru at Baseball Prospectus, says that the limp is caused by the back brace he wears and not by the injury itself. Whatever it is, it doesn't look good and if the Mets signed Guerrero to a five-year deal, they would need him to be worth it for all five years. Sure he would've been this past season, but what difference would've it have really made? Five wins? Certainly not enough to put the Mets in the playoffs.

The whole "rule" of not signing anyone for more than three years is a silly one and I am assuming it will be scrapped. I like the idea of being cautious with big free agent signings, but there shouldn't be a steadfast rule, some players are bigger risks than others. For example, this offseason Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Delgado are big risks based on age and injury and if the Mets do want to sign them (and I am not necessarily endorsing that) they should not sign them for more than three years. Conversely, Carlos Beltran is entering his prime and has no history of injury so he would be worth more than a three year deal. Will or should that happen? That is for another day.

The real problem is that when they didn't sign Vlad the Mets said it was part of their long term plan. They then went out and destroyed that plan with their two trades this season. Signing Vlad and not trading for Benson and Zambrano would've been a better move than the opposite, which is what they did. If it were up to me, I would've done neither.

New Manager? A.B.F. (Anybody But Fregosi)

2004-10-07T14:52:00.000-04:00

With the season over and Mr. Minaya in place, the question on everyone’s mind is who is going to manage the Mets next season. A lot of names are being tossed around, and Wilpon Sr. claims this is Minaya’s decision so this is his chance to make his mark.

The pattern most teams use (and certainly the Mets) in choosing managers is alternating between hard-asses and nice guys. Art Howe obviously falls into the nice guy category so it seems they are due for a hard-ass. This is where you start hearing names like Jim Fregosi, the sound of it makes me my ears bleed. Do we need another retread? Someone whose only visible qualification is that we have heard of him before? Not only that, for most Mets fans the only reason they have heard of Fregosi is because that is who the Mets received in the infamous Nolan Ryan trade. It could be convenient though, he would get to work with Victor Zambrano and the two of them should get to know each other as they are the answer to Mets fans future favorite trivia question, “Who did the Mets receive for Nolan Ryan and Scott Kazmir respectively?”

It’s not about getting a tough guy, it is about getting a guy that will not put up with the Wilpon’s crap. Howe was easily controllable, he was in Oakland and he was with the Mets. The Mets need a guy who will do it his own way and not let management meddle. While I hate to praise the Yankees, this is what Joe Torre is able to do so effectively, he is no tough guy, but he certainly doesn’t respond when Steinbrenner starts yapping to the press in mid-August about why Kenny Lofton is playing right field. The Mets need someone who can do that.
One name that is being tossed around is Willie Randolph. Randolph has said he wants to wait until after the Yankees are eliminated (notice I say “eliminated,” and not “when the season is over”) before interviewing for any positions. I think he is certainly worth the wait. There is no one out there who is so good that they need to grab him now without talking to a variety of candidates. He has dealt with the New York media as a player and coach, and we can presume that he has learned a lot about dealing with egos and management from Torre. He deserves a shot at a job and he inspires more confidence than some boring retread.

That brings us to candidate number two, Carlos Tosca, the first man being interviewed for the job. Fired by the Blue Jays earlier this year when the team was 47-64, Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said that the players had stopped playing for him. In his defense, Toronto was bitten hard by the injury bug (Roy Halladay) while getting inadequate performances from Carlos Delgado, Vernon Wells and Eric Hinske. Him and Minaya go way back, and I would hate to think that he has a leg up because he is friends with the GM, then again, if it helps in fighting off those pesky Wilpons, maybe that wouldn’t be such a bad thing. The Mets had a GM and manager who didn’t get along for years (Valentine and Phillips) and that led to some success, but obviously some failures.

Speaking of Valentine, his name has also come up for the position and there are certainly worse options. The Mets hiring Valentine is like eating McDonald’s in a foreign country, sure the local food might be better, but at least you know what you are getting. In Valentine, you are getting a shrewd game manager who will make keep the media on their toes and manage the way he sees fit. He has also worked with Minaya and during the Mets stretch of success in the late 90’s, so that has to be a point in his favor. I don’t consider him a retread in the same way as Fregosi or Tosca because he has a history of success with the Mets and he was not fired for good reasons two seasons ago In fact, he probably still should be the manager because he was never the reason the Mets went downhill.

Other names being thrown around are Rudy Jaramillo, hitting coach for the Rangers as well as Joey Cora, third base coach for the White Sox. Jaramillo and Minaya worked together in the Rangers system while Cora once managed in the Mets system. I don’t know much about Jaramillo, but The Eddie Kranepool Society does a good job of breaking down his credentials. Based on that, he sounds intriguing. Cora worries me because former punch and judy hitters who made their career by playing “the right way” (i.e. smallball) tend to manage the same way. There was early talk about Wally Backman who as you can probably figure out from my nom de plume was my favorite choice, but his name no longer seems to be part of the conversation.

Basically it boils town to two things. First and foremost, the Mets need someone who will manage his own and not bow to the pressure of Los Wilpones. Second, A.B.F.

The Playoffs are going on...

2004-10-06T21:00:00.000-04:00

...and once again, the Mets are not in them. More on this in the coming months!