Thursday, March 17, 2005

 

Trach This!

Maybe I am being too optimistic, but the loss of Trachsel may not be as bad as we first thought. Yes, as I outlined he has been excellent over the last three years, but when you look at his age, his "stuff" and his peripherals, he looks like a good candidate to start getting hit pretty hard one of these years. In fact, it is impressive his ERA has been as good as it has been considering his peripherals over the last few years.

Last year, he struck out 117 and walked 83 in 203 IP, not exactly Pedro-esque. While he has never been a great strikeout pitcher (his career K/9 is 6.06), the 5.20 figure from 2004 is cause for alarm. On top of that, Trachsel allowed 14 unearned runs, which is a lot and makes his ERA look a lot better than it is. Anyone who has read this blog knows how I feel about errors and the quick version of that is there is no difference between an error and not getting to a ball you could've. If it were up to we, RA would be the accepted stat and not ERA. A lot of unearned runs will often mask a pitchers shortcomings, and I think this was the case for Trachsel. The point here is that Matt Ginter is a decent bet to be about as good as Trachsel in 2005 when you figure that as a 27-year-old, he is more likely to have his best seasons than the 34-year-old Trachsel.

This could be wishful thinking, but the bigger concern as I see it now is Victor Zambrano. While I try not to read too much into spring performance, he has thus far been extremely hittable. While my proposed Barry Zito for Mike Cameron swap from yesterday might not be ideal, I still see Cammy as the Mets most valuable trade commodity. Miguel Cairo alone won't get it done and Cameron could potentially net a good starter. I am not saying the Mets should be in a rush to do this, but if push comes to shove, he is the one expendable player they have that other teams might want. Using him for Ugueth Urbina as some reports have suggested makes me shudder. Urbina is overrated based on name recognition, but that is a column for
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