Thursday, March 17, 2005

 

So Long Super Joe

Well, Omar must’ve finally read Metsmerized because Joe McEwing was cut. I have probably spent more time on this blog ripping McEwing than anything else. It isn’t personal, because he would be on the short list of current Mets I’d like to have a beer with. I guess he is no longer a current Met, but you get my point. In fact, I’ll take this chance to make a list of the Top 5 Mets of all-time I’d like to have a beer with. Feel free to enter your own in the comments section.

5. Eric Valent-Have to give some love to my current favorite Met.
4. Pedro Martinez-He is new, but is there any doubt he would be hysterical?
3. Kevin Mitchell-Just so I could pick a fight and watch him run the show. I wouldn’t bring a cat though.
2.Karim Garcia-It would be the same night Pedro and I were drinking. The two of them together would ensure some good Pedro one-liners.
1. Wally Backman-I’ve heard some stories of him as a minor league manager (and as a player), apparently he would out drink his players, once holding up the team bus for three hours while everyone sat on the bus waiting. That, coupled with him being my favorite Met ever made him an easy choice for the top spot.

But I digress. McEwing is a sucky major leaguer, and Chris Woodward does everything he does, but does it better. Tony LaRussa is obsessed with McEwing so he will probably end up there. As we all know, LaRussa is clueless when it comes to filling out his bench. If you want evidence, remember that he used Marlon Anderson as his DH in the World Series last October.

At one point, McEwing was useful for a few weeks, like when he came up in 1999 with the Cardinals and played every position, hit .300 for a while and was on every Smallworld baseball team in the country. Those who played Smallworld, you know what I’m talking about. So long Joe, I won’t miss you. At least on the field.

As for the Steve Trachsel debate, we may have to agree to disagree, but I will offer one more piece of evidence. While I don’t think it is gospel, I do find the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA forecasting system fascinating. PECOTA agrees with my assessment that Trachsel is a pitcher due for a fall. It has him pegged for 4.74 ERA in 152 IP and a VORP of 9.7. It has Ginter pegged for a 4.57 ERA in 90 IP with a VORP of 7.2. Ginter will obviously have more opportunity than this now so that would certainly change the looks of his projection. Can he throw 200 league average innings? I doubt it. Can he throw 150 league average innings? I think so.

If you subtract his one relief appearance, and his two awful appearances against the Yankees (maybe this isn’t fair, but the Mets do not regularly face a lineup as good as theirs) he threw 60.2 innings in 12 starts. That is an average of slightly more than 5 innings per start, not great; however, his ERA in those starts was 3.56. While I do not think he is capable of upping his innings per start and maintaining that ERA, it is realistic to think he can add an inning per start and keep his ERA in the low 4.00s, which is what we would be getting from Trachsel.

For all the talk about the Mets pitching, it has been their offense that has really been their shortcoming the last few years. In the last three years, they have finished 26th, 28th and 24th in runs scored in the majors. Upgrading their offense is really what the Mets needed and they should be a lot better there. Maintaining their runs allowed and adding 50 runs should make the Mets a winning team.

I digress again. I’d rather have Trachsel, but the difference between him and Ginter is not much.
Comments:
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If we are going to use expected VORP, we might as well slot Petit into the 2 spot behind Pedro considering his predicted VORP is in the 20's.
My Top 5 to have Drinks with
1) Dykstra, I'm sure he ain't calling it an early night
2) Keith Hernandez- "no play for mr. gray"- btw when he leaves the game in the 7th it's cause we are out macking on chicks-clyde comes out too sometimes.
3) Leiter- Just a funny insightful good guy
4) Pedro- Many many many reasons
5) Roger Mcdowell- Hot foots?
 
If we are going to use expected VORP, we might as well slot Petit into the 2 spot behind Pedro considering his predicted VORP is in the 20's.
My Top 5 to have Drinks with
1) Dykstra, I'm sure he ain't calling it an early night
2) Keith Hernandez- "no play for mr. gray"- btw when he leaves the game in the 7th it's cause we are out macking on chicks-clyde comes out too sometimes.
3) Leiter- Just a funny insightful good guy
4) Pedro- Many many many reasons
5) Roger Mcdowell- Hot foots?
 
I never said PECOTA was perfect. We know Dustin Pedroia is not going to slug .600 in the bigs this season even if given the chance.

However, PECOTA is more accurate the more comparable players there are. There are tons of mediocre righthanders in their 30's to compare Trachs to, there are not a lot of 21-year-old who strike out over 200 hitters in 140 innings, therefore, Petit does not have a lot of comps.
 
I don't have a copy of BP 2003 or 2004, but im curious to see what Trach's projections were and if he consistently over achieved.
 
I'm delighted to hear that somebody else detested Joe the way that I did. I've always found him to be quite the idiot.

Joe went take a good 30 seconds between each at-bat. This might be mildly acceptable if he was a good player, but plain idiotic for a guy hitting .230.
 
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