Wednesday, March 16, 2005


Just a Teenage Dirtbag?

With all the babies on the Oakland staff I just can't see them trading Zito, who is at least a dependable innings eater(214, 229, 231, 213, jeez!) unless they are well out of the race. If they are out of the race, it wouldn't make a lot of sense for them to trade for someone with Cameron's age or contract.
Also, I think one of the more fascinating story lines going into this year for the Mets involves Cameron. Personally, I am curious to see what an outfield made up of two elite defensive centerfielders can do together. Gone are the days of Roger Cedeno circling aimlessly at pop-ups, Welcome the days of Cliff floyd sitting in a beach chair while Beltran and Cameron have daily contests of who can get to more balls. Yet I digress,
The trade Wally proposes essentially involves the Mets giving up Cameron and Ginter for V. Diaz and Zito. There are a number of things that need to be looked at when discussing this trade. The first being, How good is Zito? Opinions vary, clearly he is not the Cy Young pitcher he once was, but on the flip side he is probably better than the 4.48 era he put up last year. His peripherals, except for HRA, were actually better last year and it seems as though he suffered from some bad luck of balls dropping in. In my estimation, Zito is a dependable lefty who is slightly better than league average.
Ginter is clearly not as a good as Zito, but did post a respectable 4.54 era in 69 innings for the mets last year(sources say Ginter added a change over the winter and it is proving to be somewhat effective this spring). Ginter doesn't walk a lot of people and relies on his fielders to make plays behind him. Incidentaly, Zito's K rate isn't that good either and he also relies on his fielders to make plays.
Bringing me to my point. Since Diaz has no true position, It's hard to imagine that his left field could hold a candle to the (likely) awesome left field that Cammy will provide. Since neither are huge K guys, It might very well be that Ginter with a Cameron assisted outfield is a more effective pitcher than Zito with a Diaz assisted one.
This is a similar argument that some have made about the yankees off-season pitching acquisitions. That instead of spending tons of money on new "front line" starters they could've addded Beltran and some scrubs and the Yankee runs allowed would have been the same, plus they would be adding Beltran's bat.
Since we are talking about potential deals...and the yankees.... I like what I see from Woodward this spring, and considering his age and experience I think he will be a great backup middle infielder. This signing makes Cairo somewhat expendable. I'm guessing in a few weeks, The Yankees will grow tired of seeing Womack a) getting thrown out stealing second b) not getting on base in the first place c)muffing balls at second, and will yearn for the days of Cairo. In return for returning their savior they throw us a cheap lefty that's never cracking their rotation anyway, Alex Graman. Everyone is happy... except for Cairo's ex-agent that is.
I wasn't suggesting Ginter be part of the deal, but if the A's wanted him, fine with me. Also, Cam and Diaz will be in right, not left.

While Zito and Ginter both rely on their fielders, lefites kill Ginter while Zito does not have such an outrageous split.

Graman pitched well at Columbus last year, but he is 27 and has never been particularly special at any level. The Yanks would jump at that trade. Graman is an organizational filler, Cairo is a useful utility player.
Sorry about that right field left field thing, I guess my brain hasn't fully recovered from my unspoken illness.
But if lefties kill Ginter maybe Ginter will just be funneling balls into Cams oversized glove?

Cairo is useful. However It seems as though Matsui is adjusting nicely to second. And with Keppinger and Woodward and the cutting of Garcia the Mets seem to be happy with their depth up the middle. Since Cairo is a proven veteran name coming off a career year as a starter for the yankees, I think he would be the best piece they could trade to bring a back of the rotation starter to Shea.
I just don't see Graman as an improvement on what the Mets already have. He is a farmhand.
Fine. I think Graman would probably be a step up from Ginter and deserves a shot somewhere. My real point is that Cameron is extremely valuable and necessary to this Mets team, especially with the lack of quality starting pitching. There aren't many deals where the Mets are going to get equal value back for Cameron. Whereas, Cairo is expendable, his value will never be higher then it is now....
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