Wednesday, February 16, 2005
Minky's Glove is Worth Ten Wins! No, Not Really
As many of you have probably seen, ESPN.com has been doing their annual off-season series of “Hot Stove Heaters.” They are all extremely subjective and in my mind, often frustratingly stupid. While I tend to err on the side of sabermetrics, I like to think that I am willing to keep an open mind to other arguments and I can be swayed by non-sabermetric arguments, as long as there is some degree of statistical evidence to back up whatever claim is being made.
Earlier this week, Eric Neel wrote a “Hot Stove Heater” proclaiming Doug Mientkiewicz the best defensive first baseman in the game. In this case, my beef was not with this claim for two reasons. First, Eric Neel is one of the few writers who is able to skillfully toe the line between an understanding of sabermetrics and colorful writing that can illuminate the non-statistical side of baseball. Second, even though Neel did not get into it, statistical evidence (beyond fielding percentage) does support the claim that Mientkiewicz is if not the best, one of the best defensive first baseman in the league and calling him that is not so ridiculous. Conversely, calling Juan Pierre the best base stealer in the league was absolutely ridiculous, but that is for another time. But I digress.
What jumped out at me about this article was a quote by our favorite GM included in the following excerpt:
Minaya figures first base is undervalued in the market place and in the minds of the average fan. "People take the position for granted," he said. He looks at a guy like J.T. Snow of the Giants, a smooth, graceful glove who "saves the Giants 10 games a year," and he anticipates something similar for his club with Mientkiewicz.
So J.T. Snow saves 10 games a year with his glove. As my friend Ted said, “So that is why the Giants are so good! I thought it was Bonds’ hitting, but apparently it is Snow’s glove.”
It’s possible that Omar was speaking off the cuff and didn’t think much about what he was saying, but even speaking in complete hyperbole that is such an outrageous statement it makes me question Omar’s judgment. It is statements like there that bother me about non-statistical analysis. There is no basis for this statement whatsoever and people often take it at face value. In fact, I am a little disappointed that Neel did not take him to task for it, but I guess that was not the point of the story.
Analysts have gone to great length to quantify defense, and it is far from an exact science. But there is no way that any fielder is worth ten wins a season, particularly at first base. Maybe Omar was saying that Minky, versus eight fielders and no first baseman at all, was worth ten wins. If so, that might be true. However, it is not possible that Minky is worth ten more wins than anyone else good enough to make it on a major league field as a first baseman, even our good friend Mike Piazza.
Maybe Orlando Cabrera is ten wins better than me at shortstop, but that is neither here nor there. And maybe I am making too big of a deal of a seemingly innocuous statement, but I just could not get over this statement, not could I get over the fact that it was printed at face value. But if Omar is speaking the truth, that means the Mets are an 81 win team even before you factor in the additions of Beltran and Pedro and a full season of David Wright.
October baseball here we come!
Earlier this week, Eric Neel wrote a “Hot Stove Heater” proclaiming Doug Mientkiewicz the best defensive first baseman in the game. In this case, my beef was not with this claim for two reasons. First, Eric Neel is one of the few writers who is able to skillfully toe the line between an understanding of sabermetrics and colorful writing that can illuminate the non-statistical side of baseball. Second, even though Neel did not get into it, statistical evidence (beyond fielding percentage) does support the claim that Mientkiewicz is if not the best, one of the best defensive first baseman in the league and calling him that is not so ridiculous. Conversely, calling Juan Pierre the best base stealer in the league was absolutely ridiculous, but that is for another time. But I digress.
What jumped out at me about this article was a quote by our favorite GM included in the following excerpt:
Minaya figures first base is undervalued in the market place and in the minds of the average fan. "People take the position for granted," he said. He looks at a guy like J.T. Snow of the Giants, a smooth, graceful glove who "saves the Giants 10 games a year," and he anticipates something similar for his club with Mientkiewicz.
So J.T. Snow saves 10 games a year with his glove. As my friend Ted said, “So that is why the Giants are so good! I thought it was Bonds’ hitting, but apparently it is Snow’s glove.”
It’s possible that Omar was speaking off the cuff and didn’t think much about what he was saying, but even speaking in complete hyperbole that is such an outrageous statement it makes me question Omar’s judgment. It is statements like there that bother me about non-statistical analysis. There is no basis for this statement whatsoever and people often take it at face value. In fact, I am a little disappointed that Neel did not take him to task for it, but I guess that was not the point of the story.
Analysts have gone to great length to quantify defense, and it is far from an exact science. But there is no way that any fielder is worth ten wins a season, particularly at first base. Maybe Omar was saying that Minky, versus eight fielders and no first baseman at all, was worth ten wins. If so, that might be true. However, it is not possible that Minky is worth ten more wins than anyone else good enough to make it on a major league field as a first baseman, even our good friend Mike Piazza.
Maybe Orlando Cabrera is ten wins better than me at shortstop, but that is neither here nor there. And maybe I am making too big of a deal of a seemingly innocuous statement, but I just could not get over this statement, not could I get over the fact that it was printed at face value. But if Omar is speaking the truth, that means the Mets are an 81 win team even before you factor in the additions of Beltran and Pedro and a full season of David Wright.
October baseball here we come!
# posted by Wally Backman @ 2/16/2005 09:56:00 PM 
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Today's Hot Stove Heater
Best Jock Itcher/Groin Readjuster.
Sure, there are plenty of men aged 20-45 who can scratch their groin in an effective manner. Whether there is an actual itch that needs to be taken care of, whether there is a simple adjustment needed, or whether the humidity makes the sack attatch to the inner thigh there are a few who seperate themselves.
First there are the speedsters who must readjust everytime they reach base. Lord knows a good jump with bad "positioning" good very well lead to some Torsion as well as an out. Juan Pierre with his quick subtle lefthanded lift and pull right stands out as one of the quickest and best in the bigs.
Gary Sheffield in between his menacing bat shimmy can keep his wag going and readjust at the same time...simply amazing.
For my money though, there is a man who separates himself from the rest of the pack.
David Wells simply scratches and readjusts like nobody in the history of the game.
Like the rest of his game, David Wells is not subtle about moving his business around. He comes right at, no wasted time, no deceit necessary. He approaches his groin like he does the strike zone, with complete confidence and accurate. He isn't afraid of the stench or chipping a nail. David Wells is as fluid in moving his package from one side to the other as he is at downing a cold one.
I don't know whether it's the combination of the slight overlap of fat hanging down that he simultaneously has to move with his forearm, or whether he can spit and adjust and scratch all at the same time.
Whatever the reason, David Wells is simply the best.
Next hot stove: The best ball slapper? take a guess... and no it's not piazza.
I feel like slamming my head through this computer. It's amazing that a company can be so dominant and so inept at the same time.
Best Jock Itcher/Groin Readjuster.
Sure, there are plenty of men aged 20-45 who can scratch their groin in an effective manner. Whether there is an actual itch that needs to be taken care of, whether there is a simple adjustment needed, or whether the humidity makes the sack attatch to the inner thigh there are a few who seperate themselves.
First there are the speedsters who must readjust everytime they reach base. Lord knows a good jump with bad "positioning" good very well lead to some Torsion as well as an out. Juan Pierre with his quick subtle lefthanded lift and pull right stands out as one of the quickest and best in the bigs.
Gary Sheffield in between his menacing bat shimmy can keep his wag going and readjust at the same time...simply amazing.
For my money though, there is a man who separates himself from the rest of the pack.
David Wells simply scratches and readjusts like nobody in the history of the game.
Like the rest of his game, David Wells is not subtle about moving his business around. He comes right at, no wasted time, no deceit necessary. He approaches his groin like he does the strike zone, with complete confidence and accurate. He isn't afraid of the stench or chipping a nail. David Wells is as fluid in moving his package from one side to the other as he is at downing a cold one.
I don't know whether it's the combination of the slight overlap of fat hanging down that he simultaneously has to move with his forearm, or whether he can spit and adjust and scratch all at the same time.
Whatever the reason, David Wells is simply the best.
Next hot stove: The best ball slapper? take a guess... and no it's not piazza.
I feel like slamming my head through this computer. It's amazing that a company can be so dominant and so inept at the same time.
I believe 100% in the cliche that offense wins pennants but pitching & defense wins championships. I am thrilled that Minkiewicz is here. He will provide better defense than even John Olerud did, he is a very good hitter (AVG & OBP) and will also be very good for Craig Brazell who I believe is our future at 1B if he someone can teach him how to field the position. Who better to do this than Mientkiewicz. I'm not big into Sabermetrics.
I do believe in statistics, however many statistics can be decieving. For example: statistically, Derek Jeter is not worth $19MM (even in this market). However it is the little things that stats cannot measure which make him worth that money. Intangibles.
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I do believe in statistics, however many statistics can be decieving. For example: statistically, Derek Jeter is not worth $19MM (even in this market). However it is the little things that stats cannot measure which make him worth that money. Intangibles.
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: 7:23 PM
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